ACUS11 KWNS 272328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272327
NEZ000-280100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the NE Sand Hills region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272327Z - 280100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may continue through sunset, with
additional development possible.

DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary supercell is ongoing across
west-central Cherry County Nebraska this evening. While deep-layer
flow/shear is generally rather modest, locally enhanced effective
SRH near a surface boundary is likely helping to sustain this
supercell, within a moderately unstable environment. MRMS data
suggest that this cell is likely producing severe hail, and it will
continue to pose a hail threat and potential for locally strong
gusts for as long as it persists. 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 may
also be sufficient for a brief tornado threat.

This storm has generally remained nearly stationary, but some slow
southward propagation will be possible for as long as it persists.
Other recent development has been noted across western Cherry
County. While uncertain, this additional development within a
favorable environment could eventually evolve into a supercell as
well, or help to maintain the dominant supercell through cell
mergers. The ongoing surface-based storms should generally begin to
weaken near/after dusk, as MLCINH begins to increase with nocturnal
cooling.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9aU19WTe-ZlROkGFMqLGb-J-VacNlcM354Q1XtPgOQc4Ay4kfYiNso8uazDw97jLKrQzo0IHILMY6HGJgRfE8DrShMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

LAT...LON 42690186 42640139 42540107 42190097 41810101 41790148
41780260 42230244 42450228 42690186

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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