ACUS03 KWNS 071942
SWODY3
SPC AC 071941

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely
scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains,
with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

...Dakotas into western Minnesota...
Significant severe storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening,
with the greatest strong tornado potential across northern and
eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota and across the
international border.

A progressive shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and
across the northern Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max and
cooling aloft. Low pressure will develop into ND, and move into
southern Manitoba through 00Z. Importantly, a substantial warm front
is forecast to move through the area, with a rapid increase in
dewpoints and instability. There appears to be minimal failure mode
for the triple point/warm front, with little if any precipitation
forecast ahead of it, and a dry air mass north of it with some
capping. A low-level jet will also increase late in the day with
40-50 kt out of the due south at 850 mb. All this will combine to
produce a dynamic and potentially dangerous scenario for parts of
North Dakota, and/or perhaps near or just north of the Canadian
border. The steep lapse rates aloft, and favorable wind profiles
near and northeast of the surface low may conditionally favor
stronger tornadoes. However, given the setup is three days out, will
maintain Enhanced Risk with CIG1 due to uncertainties.

Otherwise, the entire warm sector extending into SD and western MN
will also be conducive to supercells and eventual bowing structures
with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.

Other severe storms may occur into the central Plains as well with
hail and wind. Substantial instability will also extend
southeastward into IL and surrounding areas, with more of a
conditional risk of isolated afternoon storms as lift will be weaker
in these areas.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080723
SWODY3
SPC AC 080722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts
appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of
large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

...Synopsis...

The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly
more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the
northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet
streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify
across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into
central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A
frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN
by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending
into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to
stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening
of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains.


...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower
Missouri Valley...

A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the
front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and
any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO
Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is
forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with
decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset
by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor
organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures.
Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the
threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move
into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level
shear is forecast.

Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by
late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley
into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat
marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts
capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds.

A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and
northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next
mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The
strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081922
SWODY3
SPC AC 081921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts
appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of
large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper low is forecast over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and
northern MT Wednesday morning. One upper shortwave trough associated
with this system will be oriented over the northern High Plains
Wednesday morning, and will spread eastward through the period into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. A second upper shortwave
trough will deepen and develop southeast from the northern Rockies
to the central High Plains by Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will initially be located from eastern
ND toward the central High Plains. The northern portion of this
front will develop east across the Upper Midwest, while the
southwestern extension of the front stalls from the Mid-MO Valley
into the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over NE/KS
overnight.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley
vicinity...

Remnant convection from the Day 2/Tuesday period may be
ongoing/decaying across parts of the region Wednesday morning.
Furthermore, convective outflow could be positioned somewhere across
the Upper Midwest. As a result, evolution of convection from the Day
2 period will likely have some impact on where corridors of greater
severe potential develop on Wednesday. Regardless, rich boundary
layer moisture will spread across parts of MN/WI/IA/IL as a warm
front retreats northward across the Great Lakes and ahead of the
advancing surface cold front. This will foster strong
destabilization across the region as vertical shear increases with
time. Numerous organized severe thunderstorms, possibly both
supercells and bowing segments, are expected with an accompany
all-hazards severe risk, particularly across parts of MN/WI and
possibly IA into northern IL.

With southwest extent into the Mid/Lower MO Valley, effective shear
magnitudes will decrease. However, a very moist and strongly
unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the stalled surface
boundary across KS to western IA. A dryline will also extend into
the southern High Plains, though boundary layer moisture will also
become more modest with southwest extent. Both of these boundaries
will serve as a focus for a second area of severe thunderstorm
potential during the late afternoon/evening, with both large hail
and damaging gusts possible. Additional severe thunderstorms may
develop overnight as a low-level jet strengthens and overspreads the
stalled surface boundary across KS. Large hail could accompany this
activity later in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090727
SWODY3
SPC AC 090726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and
large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds approaching 70-80 kt. The 00z models have slowed
the progression of the mid-level wave, as well as the associated
surface low, which is forecast to develop from northeast KS along
the synoptic front or remnant outflow from overnight storms into
southern WI by afternoon and northern lower MI or the UP by Thursday
night.


...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great
Lakes...

A very moist boundary layer will combine with steep mid-level lapse
rates to yield a moderate to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon
to the south of the composite surface boundary. A cluster of mainly
elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning
across portions of the mid MO Valley, to the northeast of the
surface low. Those storms are expected to become progressively more surface-based and intense by mid to late morning into afternoon
while rapidly moving northeast, coincident with the surface low.
Forecast sounding within the inflow environment of those storms
indicate strong low-level and deep-layer shear, supportive of
supercells and bowing segments capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging winds.

Additional severe storms are expected to develop along the trailing
front from the lower MO and mid MS Valleys southwest through the
Ozarks into southern Plains. The progressive nature of the mid-level
system suggests the potential for long-tracked supercells and bowing
structures capable of tornadoes and swaths of destructive winds.


...Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast...

While large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain
relatively weak, model guidance indicates scattered, afternoon storm development from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the
central Appalachians to the vicinity of a lee trough in the
Mid-Atlantic. Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak;
however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass
will support wet microburst activity and an associated risk for
sporadic damaging winds.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091920
SWODY3
SPC AC 091919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and
large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...

A compact but potent upper shortwave trough, characterized by a
60-80 kt 500 mb jet streak, will move across the central Plains and
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. A strong low-level
jet will likely be oriented across parts of MO/KS/OK Thursday
morning. Some weakening of this feature will occur as it spreads
northeast through the morning, but re-invigoration of the low-level
jet is forecast by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure initially over central KS will develop
northeast toward Lake Michigan through 00z, and cross the
international border by 12z Friday. A cold front/composite outflow
from prior convection is expected to be oriented from northern
WI/Upper MI southwestward into northwest OK by midday. The northern
extent of the boundary will progress eastward across much of the
Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley through the period, while the western
extent stalls over OK and the TX Panhandle.

...Upper Great Lakes to Lower MO/Mid-MS and Lower Ohio Valleys...

An MCS may be ongoing in the vicinity of eastern NE/southwest IA
Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature and the aforementioned cold
front, a very moist airmass will remain in place across the Midwest
(upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints). Strong destabilization will be
possible (2500-4500 J/kg). Reintensification or redevelopment of
morning convection is possible as this activity encounters the
instability gradient from eastern IA into northern IL and Lower MI.
Favorable vertical shear profiles will support supercells and bowing
segments capable of significant wind gusts, large hail (with more
discrete convection), and strong tornadoes through the afternoon,
centered on eastern IA, northern IL, far southern WI and perhaps as
far east as southern Lower MI/northern IN.

With time, additional convection will develop along the cold front
from central IL into southwest MO. Very large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it spread
east/southeast across the Ozarks and toward the Lower Ohio Valley
through evening.

...Southern Plains...

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain with southwest extent
into OK/TX. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused further
northeast, but strong instability, rich boundary layer moisture and
steep lapse rates near the sagging cold front and a dryline should
foster at least isolated storm development where capping can be
overcome. Supercells in this environment would pose a risk for
severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic...

A weak disturbance is forecast to move through an upper ridge across
the region, resulting in modest enhancement to northwesterly flow
aloft. Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture will support
moderate destabilization during the afternoon/early evening.
Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to isolated
severe wind gusts and sporadic wind damage.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100726
SWODY3
SPC AC 100725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and some large
hail are possible across the Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians
Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley Friday
morning will progress through southwest Ontario to along the St.
Lawrence Valley, with a corridor of height falls and stronger
mid-level winds overspreading the lower Great Lakes into
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move through the
lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians before merging with lee
troughing east of the northern and central Appalachians.


...Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians...

A hot and moist air mass is expected to exist across the pre-frontal
warm sector Friday afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s to
upper 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s. While mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest, the high theta-e boundary
layer will largely contribute to moderate instability. The glancing
influence of the short-wave trough coupled with convergence along
the cold front and lee trough, in addition to terrain influences are
expected to foster scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

The strongest vertical shear of 30-40 kt is forecast from the lower
OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, where the potential will exist
for some transient supercell and bowing structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Vertical shear will be comparatively weaker
along the lee trough; however, both low-level lapse rates and
instability will be greater, supporting potential for damaging
downburst winds and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal that storms will coalesce into multiple clusters by late
afternoon into early evening with a potentially more concentrated
area of damaging winds reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Mid-South into the Central and South High Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of the surface
front, which is expected to stall across the discussion area. In the
absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, the models vary on the
location and coverage of diurnally enhanced storms, which could pose
some severe-weather threat. Severe-weather probabilities may
eventually be added to some of the area once confidence in storm
evolution becomes more clear.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101931
SWODY3
SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Evolving clusters of storms may spread from the Allegheny Mountains,
and perhaps Poconos and Catskills, into northern Mid Atlantic coast
Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that subtropical ridging will be maintained across
much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this period.
Mid-level ridging may also build within the mid-latitudes, offshore
of the Pacific coast, but a largely zonal regime appears likely to
be maintained from the northern Rockies through the lower Great
Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic.

While a secondary surface frontal low, shifting northeast of the
Great Lakes region by 12z Friday, turns north/northwestward and
occludes across the Hudson Bay vicinity by Friday night, the
associated mid-level cyclone may only slowly shift eastward to the south-southwest of Hudson Bay. An increasingly convectively
augmented trailing surface cold front appears likely to advance
southeast of the lower Great Lakes through much of the Mid Atlantic
by 12Z Saturday.

...Allegheny Mountains into western New England/Mid Atlantic...
Models suggest that westerly deep-layer mean wind fields are likely
to remain rather modest through this period, and forcing for ascent
associated with one or two short wave perturbations pivoting around
the periphery of the mid-level low may be glancing with respect to
the evolving surface warm sector. However, guidance generally
suggests that a seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary-layer (surface
dew points near 70F) across the Allegheny Plateau/Mountains into the Adirondacks and Champlain/Hudson Valley vicinity may become
characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg with
insolation. Preceding at least weak mid-level height falls, this
environment is expected to become supportive increasing vigorous
thunderstorm through early/mid Friday afternoon.

Strengthening surface cold pools, perhaps aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric flow on the order of 20-30+ kt, may
contribute to modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce
damaging wind gusts while propagating east of the higher terrain,
toward the northern Mid Atlantic coast, through early Friday
evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards
appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of
the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated
severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark
Plateau, and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern
Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through
the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be
attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are
expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes
Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front
initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday
morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO
Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.


...Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains...

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO
Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location
of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of
instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates
the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across
portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in
instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great
Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear
most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along
the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm
coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes.
Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized
storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the
upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the
southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated
severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains
into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms
may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday
evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into
the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111931
SWODY3
SPC AC 111930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
LOWER MISSISOURI VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will
begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley during this period. Within this
regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering
mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay, through the
lower Missouri Valley, but this may be comprised of at least a
couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this
evolution still uncertain.

In lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop
southward through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading
edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio River, Ozarks
Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded
by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the
southern Appalachians.

...Central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley...
Lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the
extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe
probabilities, at least at this time. However, a consensus of model
output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of
an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or
two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across
the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity by late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

In the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that
low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large
potential instability, particularly across the central Great Plains
into lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau, to the north of remnant
mid-level subtropical ridging. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level
warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of
strongest convective development. Guidance suggests that this could
occur anywhere from north central Kansas through the lower Missouri
Valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward
through Saturday night.

It is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially
modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Some strengthening of
flow is possible across the region in association with the approach
of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in
the various model output is probably related to the
convection/convective feedback. Given the magnitude of the
potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear
inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be
accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120654
SWODY3
SPC AC 120653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the
northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX by
mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will
develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold
front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of
moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

...Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex...

Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front
during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could
quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong
gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$

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