ACUS02 KWNS 071734
SWODY2
SPC AC 071732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado and damaging gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening
in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Additional, more isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds will be possible from the Canadian border into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic damaging winds may occur
from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will pivot northward across central Canada with
temporary height rises over the Plains. Moderate southwest flow
aloft will persist from the central Rockies into the northern Plains
during the day as an area of high pressure modifies there. To the
south, low pressure will develop from the central to southern High
Plains, with surface winds veering to easterly over KS/NE and into
eastern CO and WY late. Ample moisture will exist with the zone of
backed easterly flow, and this moist/unstable air mass will
accelerate westward during the evening as 850 winds increase ahead
of a secondary wave moving into the Rockies overnight. A weak
surface trough will also remain over the mid MO Valley, just east of
the western Dakotas surface high.

Elsewhere, a weak midlevel wave will persist into the middle MS and
lower OH Valleys, providing a focus for thunderstorms within the
moist air mass.

...Central Plains...
An area of moderate instability will develop across the central
Plains as strong heating occurs and low-level winds increase out of
the east. Storms are most likely to develop near the higher terrain
from eastern WY into eastern CO, and on the interface of the steeper
low-level lapse rates and moistening/upslope air mass. Favorable
effective shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates will clearly favor
supercells initially with large damaging hail, with areas of
wind-driven hail as storms evolve eastward through early evening.
Low-level winds veering height may also support a brief tornado or
two. The most concentrated area of severe storms will be from
northeast CO into western NE, but sporadic cells may occur as far
north as the Black Hills area. Finally, a few cells may develop
within the hot inverted-v environment into the TX Panhandle/western
OK during the afternoon with locally damaging gusts.

..Far Northern Plains...
Late Monday night into Tuesday morning, warm/moist advection will
accelerate ahead of the developing trough over the Rockies. Models
are a bit uncertain, but potential will exist for elevated storms
with hail potential over eastern MT into northwest MN as lift and
instability increase.

...Southeast MO into western TN...
A slow-moving midlevel trough should again provide a focus for storm development, as deep moisture is maintained and areas of heating
occur. New development is most likely to occur with any existing
MCV, or near differential heating zones. Locally strong low-level
shear is anticipated which may aid brief/weak tornado potential.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080548
SWODY2
SPC AC 080546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.
Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible
across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.
Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday
morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a
more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level
jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday
night.

At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT
into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or
dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into
northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a
warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will
reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.


...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...

A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm
front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with
MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the
poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead
short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the
surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the
western Dakotas.

Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to
the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells,
which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the
western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large
hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is
expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment.
Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs
with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what
the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level
shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10%
unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group
one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm
mode.

At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along
coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging
wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.


...Central Plains...

Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the
upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results
in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the
latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate
the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS,
perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form
in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal
deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into
Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of
high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms
may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern
KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly
unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential
would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the
possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is
low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional
probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been
added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.


...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley...

A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or
quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the
region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher
unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for
large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that
can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081737
SWODY2
SPC AC 081736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.

...Synopsis...

A negatively tilted upper trough will be oriented from the Pacific
Northwest to the southern Great Basin Tuesday morning. This feature
will pivot east through the period, become positioned from southwest Saskatchewan to the central High Plains. A belt of enhanced
southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the
northern/central Plains ahead of the aforementioned trough.
Meanwhile, an intensifying low-level jet will develop during the evening/overnight hours across much of the Plains toward the Upper
Midwest.

At the surface, low pressure over eastern MT will gradually deepen
and shift east/northeast across the northern Plains and adjacent
Canadian Prairies. A Pacific front/dryline feature will extend
southward from the low across the western Dakotas and NE. A
secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of eastern
CO/western KS/southwest NE, where a dryline will extend from western
KS southward into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. Further east, a
quasi-warm front feature is expected to extend northwest to
southeast from MN to the Mid-MS Valley. This boundary may gradually
lift northward through the evening/overnight in response to the
low/midlevel mass response/increasing low-level jet.

These boundaries will be a focus for severe storm development during
the afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Northern Plains vicinity...

Convection is expected to develop near the ND/MT border vicinity by
mid/late afternoon along the surface boundary. A warm front should
be well north of the Dakotas over the southern Canadian Prairies,
and increasing southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid
60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Cooling aloft will result
in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer
moisture, supporting MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg.
South/southwesterly low-level winds will become southwesterly in the
mid/upper levels, resulting in supercell wind profiles and 40+ kt
effective shear magnitudes. Initial supercell storms are expected,
though these storms may be somewhat higher-based within the more
modest boundary layer moisture across the western Dakotas/far
eastern MT. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these
storms initially.

As convection develops eastward into the axis of greater low-level
moisture and strong instability, severe potential will increase,
particularly with respect to swaths of damaging winds and tornadoes.
As the low-level jet increases during the evening, and given
mid/upper flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary, upscale
growth into one or more linear segments is expected. As cold pool
consolidation occurs, potential for significant wind gusts (greater
than 65 kt) is expected to increase across parts of central ND.
Low-level shear will also support tornado potential, whether
semi-discrete supercells can be maintained, or with mesovortex
generation within linear bands. As such, have left tornado
probabilities similar to the prior forecast. Given the expectation
that storm mode will become more linear with time, hail
probabilities have been lowered (removed 45 percent). Nevertheless,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells that can be maintained or are embedded within linear
segments.

...NE/SD/Mid-MO Valley vicinity...

Convection emanating northeast from NE may eventually grow upscale
into an MCS during the nighttime hours and spread into eastern SD
and the Mid-MO Valley area. This scenario is uncertain. However,
given ample deep-layer flow, extreme instability and at least subtle large-scale ascent over the region as the low-level jet overspreads
this area overnight, this scenario seems plausible. If this occurs,
damaging wind potential will be possible, and severe probabilities
have been expanded eastward across portions of the region.

...KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM...

High-based convection is expected to develop along the surface
dryline during the late afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing will
support steep low-level lapse rates. 500 mb temperatures around -10
C also will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km per
regional forecast soundings. Deep layer shear will not be as strong
as further north, but strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles will support severe wind gusts. There is some
potential that if storms can be maintained further east toward
better low-level moisture as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, a swath of significant wind gusts could occur across the
southwest KS vicinity. Severe probabilities have been increased
across portions of the area given a favorable environment and strong
signal within most forecast guidance.

...Mid-MS Valley into Lower OH Valley...

A quasi-warm front/moisture boundary will overlap the region from
northwest to southeast, and is likely to lift northward toward Lake
MI overnight. Large-scale ascent will remain weak until late in the
period. Nevertheless, strong instability within a very moist and
unstable airmass will support isolated severe wind gusts potential
through peak heating with any storms that develop. Additional storms
may develop overnight from WI into northern IL as the low-level jet
noses into the region resulting in strong warm advection atop the
surface boundary. While this activity may remain elevated above the
nocturnal stable layer, some potential for strong gusts or marginal
hail is possible.

..Leitman.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090541
SWODY2
SPC AC 090540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains,
and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Synopsis...

An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to
deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night.
That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet
streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem
with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially
over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate
northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the
leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday
morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening,
while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary
from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day
before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect
the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature
extending southwest into western TX.


...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and
Southern Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal
low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the
early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to
focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by
early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late
afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western
WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern
KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.

Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon
into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across
the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.

The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe
storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail
and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures
by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into
Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for
75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode
transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is
expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of
eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.

Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS
into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of
instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor
organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large
hail during the afternoon and evening hours.

A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night
into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong
warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a
50+ kt low-level jet.


...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance
moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some
enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear
increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe
storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091722
SWODY2
SPC AC 091721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with
this system will overspread the Upper MS Valley vicinity in tandem
with an intensifying low-level jet during the late afternoon into
the nighttime hours, providing ample support for organized
convection.

At the surface, a quasi-warm front/moisture gradient is noted from north-central MN into northern Lower MI in model guidance during the
morning. This boundary may lift northward through the day, though
some influence from the Great Lakes may maintain this gradient
across northern WI/MI. Otherwise the surface cold front will be
located from northwest MN into northwest KS by midday. This boundary
will march eastward through the period, becoming oriented from Upper
MI/central WI to southeast NE by Thursday morning. The southern
extent of the front will stall over KS as a surface low deepens
across the central Plains overnight in response to another upper
shortwave trough ejecting over the Rockies/High Plains.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity into northeast KS...

A somewhat complex scenario is evident for Wednesday, with potential
for more than one round of severe storms possible for parts of the
region, particularly IA/WI/IL. This complex scenario will be
influence by potential remnant MCVs and outflows from Day 2/Tuesday
convection persisting into Wednesday morning or migrating into the
area by early afternoon ahead of the main synoptic front. Additional
convection will then also be possible along the main front late
afternoon into the nighttime hours.

Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place across the region,
with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F common. Steep
lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will support
moderate to strong instability from 2000-4000 J/kg. Initial storm
development will be supercells given favorable vertically veering
shear profiles with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes over a large
area. With time, one or more bowing clusters may develop via cold
pool consolidation and linear organization along the cold front as a
40+ kt low-level jet develops by early evening. Initial large to
very large hail and a strong tornado risk will accompany discrete
cells. Damaging wind potential will be greater with more linear
storm mode and some gusts could be greater than 75 mph with these
organized linear modes.

During the early evening, additional convection is expected to
develop along the surface boundary from northeast KS into northwest
MO and southern IA. Some forecast guidance (particularly the RAP)
suggests this zone may be particularly favorable for supercell
development as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large
hail, damaging gusts a possibly a strong tornado will be possible
with this convection along the southwest extent of the surface
front. Overnight, additional storms may develop across eastern NE
into western IA in a warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough
ejecting into the central High Plains after 06z. This activity will
likely be elevated, but would still pose a risk for large hail and
perhaps strong wind gusts.

...South-central KS into western OK and the TX Panhandle...

Vertical shear will become more limited with southwest extent on
Wednesday. Capping also may limit storm development/coverage into
the TX Panhandle. Nevertheless, any storms that do development will
likely be somewhat higher-based and pose a risk for strong outflow
winds. Large to very large hail will also be possible with any
longer-lived storms given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong
instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs.

...Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...

A weak midlevel shortwave trough will migrate across the region on
Wednesday. This will result in modestly enhanced vertical shear as
midlevel flow increases during peak heating. At the surface, rich
boundary layer moisture will overspread the area. Dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F and strong heating into the 80s F will result in
moderate destabilization. Morning convection may be ongoing across
portions of the Delmarva vicinity, resulting in uncertainty with
regards to the extent of afternoon severe potential, but at least
isolated potential for strong gusts is possible from NY/PA/NJ
southward into the Delmarva.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100547
SWODY2
SPC AC 100545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail greater than two inches in diameter, and
destructive winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. Widely scattered severe storms capable of
damaging winds and large hail are possible across the Southern
Plains, as well as the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds of 60-80+ kt. Elsewhere, northwest flow pattern
will prevail in the mid levels across the Mid-Atlantic, with a
series of weaker disturbances moving through that region.

At the surface, low pressure initially over north-central KS
Thursday morning will develop into central lower MI by Thursday
night. The surface low will be developing along a composite
outflow-warm front that will be rapidly lifting north through the
Midwest into the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front
will advance southeast through the lower MO and mid MS Valleys, with
the southwestward extension of the boundary settling south into the
southern Plains.


...Mid/lower Missouri Valley into the Mid Mississippi Valley and
upper Great Lakes...

There is good model agreement that a cluster of severe storms,
including supercells, will be ongoing at 12z Thursday across the mid
MO Valley, immediately northeast of the surface low and within a
zone of strong, low-level warm advection. The early-day storms are
expected to grow upscale into an organized MCS with embedded
supercell and bowing structures across IA by mid to late morning
amidst a rapidly destabilizing air mass, which will be coincident
with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, the potential
for tornadoes (some strong) and corridors of destructive winds in
excess of 75 mph is expected to increase significantly during the
morning. The intensifying MCS and its related destructive wind and
tornado threat is expected to move into southern WI and northern IL
by early to mid afternoon, and eventually into lower MI by late
afternoon into evening.

An additional wave of supercells and/or bowing structures is
expected to develop along the trailing outflow from the lead MCS, as
well as along the cold front from eastern IA and northern IL into
the mid MS Valley during the afternoon into evening. Those storms
will be capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds with significant gusts, which could become widespread should
storm mode transition to a bowing line.


...Eastern Kansas into the Southern Plains...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid to late afternoon
along the cold front amidst a moderate to strongly unstable air
mass. The models indicate the strongest deep-layer shear remaining
within the post-frontal environment. Nonetheless, there is some
signal for 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear to cross the eastern KS
and western MO segment of the front at an oblique angle, which will
be supportive of supercell storm modes with a risk for large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear vectors are
forecast to align largely parallel with the front across the
southern Plains, which may contribute to downshear storm seeding,
leading to more messy modes. Nonetheless, the degree of instability
will favor vigorous up/downdrafts capable of large hail and damaging
winds.

...Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians...

Daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s are
expected to yield a weakly capped and moderate to strongly unstable
afternoon air mass. Forcing for ascent associated with the
disturbances mentioned in the synopsis are expected to foster
multiple clusters of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds,
especially if organized cold pools can develop. There is some model
signal that a corridor of slightly stronger low-level and deep-layer
shear will materialize across the lower Hudson Valley Thursday
afternoon, which would support some potential for supercells capable
of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101733
SWODY2
SPC AC 101731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN
IOWAS....NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI....NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging will be
maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this
period, while the westerlies begin to trend a bit more zonal across
the northern tier, in the wake of a broad, deep occluding cyclone
slowly migrating northeastward toward southwestern Hudson Bay. A
significant short wave trough turning to the east of the northern
Rockies, to the south of the cyclone, at the outset of the period,
is still forecast to pivot across southern portions of the mid
Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes Thursday through
Thursday night. This is likely to be accompanied by the
northeastward migration of an associated secondary surface frontal
low from the central Great Plains across and northeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to build through the
day across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, with
one or two perturbations digging within weak northwesterly flow
further downstream, across the Allegheny Mountains and northern Mid
Atlantic vicinity.

A seasonably moist air mass, supportive of moderate to large
potential instability, is likely to be maintained within the warm
sector of the cyclone, to the north of the subtropical ridge.
However, it appears that this may be substantively modified, at
least initially, by outflow from thunderstorm development today
across a large portion of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region.
There have been some adjustments of categorical and probabilistic thunder/severe lines to account for associated uncertainties, and
also attempt to better account for consensus of varying model
output.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into southern Great Plains...
Downstream of the approaching short wave impulse and secondary low,
low-level warm advection on the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb
jet may be providing support for an evolving convective cluster
along/north of outflow boundary across southwestern Iowa at the
outset of the period. This may include storms with potential to
produce severe hail, before perhaps becoming rooted in a
destabilizing boundary layer while spreading with forcing across
Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through Thursday
afternoon. This could include increasing potential for convection
capable of producing wind damage and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Thereafter, the primary forcing for stronger destabilization and
lift to support strong/severe thunderstorm development seems likely
to shift to the intersection of the trailing outflow/secondary
surface low/cold front intersection across southeastern Iowa by late
afternoon. This may include supercell development initially, before
convection grows upscale and organizes in the presence of strong
low-level and deep-layer shear, then propagates into and across the
lower Lake Michigan/Michigan vicinities through Thursday evening,
with potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered additional strong/severe storm development is possible in
the corridor of stronger pre-frontal instability, but weaker
mid/upper support and shear, southwestward through portions of the
southern Great Plains.

...Alleghenies/northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate to locally strong potentially instability probably will
become sufficient to support widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101751
SWODY2
SPC AC 101750

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AMD EASTERN
IOWAS....NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI....NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGH NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR A FEW TYPOS/WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development, including one or two
organizing clusters, will probably be accompanied by the potential
for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of strong
tornadoes in a corridor across the Midwest into Great Lakes region
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid-level subtropical ridging will be
maintained across much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this
period, while the westerlies begin to trend a bit more zonal across
the northern tier, in the wake of a broad, deep occluding cyclone
slowly migrating northeastward toward southwestern Hudson Bay. A
significant short wave trough turning to the east of the northern
Rockies, to the south of the cyclone, at the outset of the period,
is still forecast to pivot across southern portions of the mid
Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes Thursday through
Thursday night. This is likely to be accompanied by the
northeastward migration of an associated secondary surface frontal
low, from the central Great Plains across and northeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday.

Downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to build through the
day across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity, with
one or two perturbations digging within weak northwesterly flow
further downstream, across the Allegheny Mountains and northern Mid
Atlantic vicinity.

A seasonably moist air mass, supportive of moderate to large
potential instability, is likely to be maintained within the warm
sector of the cyclone, to the north of the subtropical ridge.
However, it appears that this may be substantively modified, at
least initially, by outflow from thunderstorm development today
across a large portion of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region.
There have been some adjustments of categorical and probabilistic thunder/severe lines to account for associated uncertainties, and
also attempt to better account for consensus of varying model
output.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into southern Great Plains...
Downstream of the approaching short wave impulse and secondary low,
low-level warm advection on the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb
jet may be providing support for an evolving convective cluster
along/north of an outflow boundary across southwestern Iowa at the
outset of the period. This may include storms with potential to
produce severe hail, before perhaps becoming rooted in a
destabilizing boundary layer while spreading with forcing across
Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through Thursday
afternoon. This could include increasing potential for convection
capable of producing damaging wind gust and perhaps a few tornadoes.


Thereafter, the primary forcing for stronger destabilization and
lift to support strong/severe thunderstorm development seems likely
to shift to the intersection of the trailing outflow/secondary
surface low/cold front across southeastern Iowa by late afternoon.
This may include supercell development initially, before convection
grows upscale and organizes in the presence of strong low-level and
deep-layer shear, then propagates into and across the lower Lake Michigan/Michigan vicinities through Thursday evening, with
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Scattered additional strong/severe storm development is possible in
the corridor of stronger pre-frontal instability, but weaker
mid/upper support and shear, southwestward through portions of the
southern Great Plains.

...Alleghenies/northern Mid Atlantic...
Moderate to locally strong potentially instability probably will
become sufficient to support widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorm development with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts Thursday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the
coast.


...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central
Appalachians...

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.

The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.


...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.


...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111731
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into
Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by
potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes,
offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will
remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S.
through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered
over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low
centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic
Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent
and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream
short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the
lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.

In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday
through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing
southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday.
Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River
Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is
forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air
slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity,
through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great
Lakes region.

..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic...
There still appears a general consensus within model output that
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable
potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with
insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the
Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and
perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak
mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the
700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive
to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening
low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to
sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and
Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become
supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to
produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies,
near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an
organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a
nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be
out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to
be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into
southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later
outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.

...Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK...

Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS
Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS,
MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.

Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in
the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is
possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by
afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.

Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS
into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower
MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent
outlooks.

...Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer
moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on
Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$

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