AWUS01 KWNH 070857
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0347
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast TX...Southern OK...Far
Southwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070855Z - 071455Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going
into the morning hours across portions of north-central to
northeast TX, southern OK and far southwest AR. This will be
driven by the arrival and localized persistence of areas of
showers and thunderstorms with extreme rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Well-defined vort energy advancing around the base of
the upper trough/closed low over the southern Plains will continue
to interact with an anomalous pool of tropical moisture situated
around the southern and eastern flanks of the upper-level height
falls. Much of the moisture continues to have a dual-feed, with an
axis in the low-levels from the Gulf, and a long-fetch axis from
the eastern Pacific seen in the mid and upper-levels of the
vertical column. In fact, PWs across the region remain as high as
1.8 to 2.2 inches based on the latest RAP and GPS-derived data.

This moisture and energy coupled with MLCAPE values of 1000 to
1500 J/kg will continue to favor relatively slow-moving and
locally repeating areas of showers and thunderstorms with extreme
rainfall rates. Over the last several hours, the southern suburbs
of the Dallas metropolitan area have been seeing rainfall rates as
high 2 to 3 inches/hour. Some MRMS-derived rainfall totals over
the last 6 hours have been on the order of 3 to 5 inches.

The latest hires multi-model consensus including recent HRRR and
RRFS solutions support locally an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain
through mid-morning. Generally the greatest potential should tend
to be over north-central to northeast TX, but areas of southern OK
just north of the Red River may see some redevelopment of
thunderstorms in association with a vort center advancing east
from northwest TX. Downstream areas of far southwest AR may also
see impacts from these clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
later this morning.

Given the earlier rainfall overnight, and additional potential
going through the early to mid-morning hours, additional areas of
flash flooding are expected.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8pcW8umVxcUSQicdr7DumVuWGnWLkAGnA_7bTZgIICTZYERO-7BRayUOukJkR9AEN74b= MRxJHn0-JlZCrot2AUmSFCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34629608 34419452 33699377 32879389 32219483=20
32039617 32109759 32609892 33249952 34039920=20
34379844 34579729=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071413
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-071900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0348
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of central AL into the TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071410Z - 071900Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible from portions
of Middle and western TN into northeastern MS and northern/central
AL through the early afternoon. Embedded training within scattered
showers and thunderstorms will result in hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches and localized totals of 3 to 4+ inches.

DISCUSSION...Long loops of regional radar imagery across MS/AL
since early this morning revealed the presence of two MCVs (north
of TUP and north of SEM) at 14Z, embedded within a low to
mid-level shortwave advancing toward the ENE. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms were beginning to increase in number over
northern AL into far southern TN. The airmass sampled by 12Z RAOBs
at JAN and BMX indicated PWATs of 2.1 to 2.2 inches with wet bulb
zero heights near 14 kft, supportive of efficient rainfall
production. Southwesterly low level flow over MS/AL of 15-20 kt
was advecting this moist airmass and instability northeastward
into TN. Aloft, winds were modestly diffluent within the exit
region of a subtropical jet advancing from TX into the Lower MS
Valley, which is expected to aid in larger scale ascent over the
region.

Showers and thunderstorm should continue expanding ahead of the
advancing shortwave trough from far northeastern MS into TN and central/northern AL through the rest of the morning. Given the
similarly aligned low level and steering flow, some instances of
backbuilding and/or training can be expected. However, low level
winds are of a similar magnitude to the steering flow and some
weakening of low level winds is forecast through 18Z, so the
degree of backbuilding might be limited. Nonetheless, the
potential for 1 to 2+ inches of rain 60 minutes (or <60 minutes)
is very much present, with transient low level
convergence/confluence axes also focusing lift. So while coverage
of flash flooding is uncertain and may remain localized, a few
areas of flash flooding will be possible with potential for storm
totals in excess of 3 to 4 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94ccwBtaynpC9g2u-kUe2FWfnP8wrZQ0MtPsDOM-8UrE_H18vdFNskHbs8VKozImNIXL= qFjGNrB7Za107F8j-Y40mEE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36268794 36228723 36048647 35548556 34558509=20
33398537 32978592 33008696 33548759 34458840=20
35028865 35558866 36058840=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071457
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071955-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...Red River into ArkLaTex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071455Z - 071955Z

SUMMARY...A flash flood threat will continue for northeastern TX
into southeastern OK and southwestern AR. Additional totals of 2
to 4+ inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...1450Z radar imagery showed a lingering MCS just north
of the DFW Metroplex with areas of training that have
MRMS-estimated hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2 inches. Infrared
satellite imagery has shown overall warming of cloud tops over the
past two hours but a lingering flash flood threat remains over
locations just downstream from the ongoing MCS for the next 1 to 2
hours. A very moist (PWATs near 2 inches) and unstable (MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg) airmass was in place south and east of the MCS
cold pool with 30 to 35 kt of SSW 850 mb flow to its south.

The MCS is expected to continue tracking eastward over the next
few hours with an overall weakening, though localized new
convective bursts remain possible. Areas of training will remain
likely in the short term with 1 to 2 inches of rain over an hour
for portions of northern TX. Additional convective development may
occur over southeastern OK as the MCS/cold pool moves through, and
while these cells are expected to be largely progressive from west
to east, they could move across portions of the Ouachita Mountains
which picked up 3 to 6 inches of rain over the past 24 hours.
Farther south into TX, There could be new convective development
along the southeastern flank of the MCS as it progresses east near
or just after 18Z. Over and just southeast of the DFW Metroplex is
another area that received heavy rain and flash flooding before
sunrise this morning. Isolated pockets of 2 to 4+ inches will be
possible through early afternoon.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WmphZm8-MLQ9ABiW0fI0VEasrtG1z82nWGgo9Q3jGkOUKpWuE7q32Uq3O3kSE23i2n5= 73rP7nA7agYcy1WoaIorPzw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35159520 35149432 34929392 34739365 33979343=20
33269382 32439492 32469682 32839758 33119775=20
33659786 34049772 34519710 34849634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071601
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0350
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...Midwest/Upper MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071559Z - 072130Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy rain may result in flash flooding across
portions of the Midwest into the Upper MS Valley through 22Z.
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and totals of 2 to 3+ inches are
expected.

DISCUSSION...1545Z regional radar and infrared imagery showed
coverage of thunderstorms expanding over IA/IL, near a
quasi-stationary front that draped from northern IN/IL into
northeastern IA and southwestern MN. 15Z conditions near the front
via the SPC mesoanalysis page showed a relatively narrow axis of
MLCAPE where thunderstorms were forming of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. PWs
were also anomalously high for early June as sampled in the 12Z
sounding from ILX with a 1.95 inch precipitable water value. The
region was within a favorable position of larger scale ascent
ahead of a closed mid-level low over NE/KS (lifting NNE) and
diffluent flow aloft centered over IA and IL.

The front is forecast to remain in roughly the same place through
the afternoon, although some northward lifting of the front is
expected into the afternoon in MN. Continued daytime heating
through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon should
allow CAPE to expand in magnitude along the front with additional
cells likely developing over the next 3 to 6 hours from
southeastern MN into northern IL. Average cell motions should be
toward the north at 15-25 kt but upstream development and cell
mergers could favor training with 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour
with potential for total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally
higher). With flash flood guidance values at 2 inches or less for
a majority of the region, a few widely scattered areas of flash
flooding will be possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!72LW48WlIfjcOTLPLXtBBz1EwrKmW6P79T2JA2M1Z_A19PvxAyqL9JTSr6O8c6lyvHNK= BfqMcuGf0FTwScqzTQ6aIjg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44319338 44179205 42899065 42138897 41458817=20
40688838 40458950 40779078 41749233 42849359=20
43739380=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071851
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080049-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Alabama, southern Middle
Tennessee, far northwest Georgia, and far northeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071849Z - 080049Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to train while
producing very heavy rain rates along an east-west axis near/just
north of US 72. These trends will continue for a few hours,
posing a locally significant flash flood threat.

Discussion...The flash flood threat across northern Alabama
continues. Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
convective clusters extending from Florence to east of Huntsville,
with stratiform precipitation noted into southern Middle
Tennessee. The deeper convection was beginning to focus along the
southern edge of a maturing cold pool along the TN/AL border
region, with westerly steering flow aloft parallel to that cold
pool edge fostering training convection in the general area.=20
Furthermore, 15-20 knot 850mb flow from the southwest was
maintaining an abundantly moist, unstable airmass (2-2.3 inch PW,
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) into the cold pool edge/convergence zone.=20
This scenario will likely support periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall for at least the next 2-4 hours at least, with occasional
FFG exceedance, excessive runoff, and locally significant impacts.

Several reports of local impacts have already been received across
northern Alabama from heavy rainfall. Again, with the TN/AL
border region cold pool being further established and upstream
convection over northwestern AL/far northeast MS moving into the
region, additional 2-4 inch rainfall totals can be expected
through 00Z/7p this evening. Flash flooding is likely during this
timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6I2Qbup-IbbyacOKNBIAPMuTScGOL84aBEAhgTg9gCZxLF-tYJg_8MROJynPeBZUm7Nx= 26_7GZA1d93RUghOfTxHqEs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35428736 35298571 34798484 34158467 33828538=20
33918771 34348891 34828907 35218859=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071904
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0352
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...western/central AR into western/central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071902Z - 080100Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible into the early evening
hours from portions of western/central AR into western/central MO.
Scattered coverage of storms and potential for repeating rounds of
heavy rain could result in a few 2 to 4+ inch totals through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...1830Z radar and visible satellite imagery showed an
MCV over eastern OK, advancing northeastward. This feature was
located within the eastern edge of a broader scale mid-level
trough over the central to southern Plains. Lift ahead of these
features and largely uninhibited MLCAPE (via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis
data) of 500 to 2000 J/kg (highest to south over central AR) has
resulted in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
western AR into southwestern MO. SPC mesoanalysis also showed
precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.1 inches form AR into MO,
part of the same airmass that has impacted portions of OK/TX with
heavy rain over the past few days.

Scattered thunderstorms, with a mixture of storm types, are
expected over the next 4 to 6 hours from portions of AR into
western and central MO. Aloft, left-exit region ascent tied to a
70-90 kt upper level jet over the ArkLaTex should aid with lift
across northern AR into MO. Sufficient mid-level shear exists for
some organization of cells, especially into AR where effective
bulk shear values locally exceed 30 kt.

As the eastern OK MCV and mid-level trough continue to advance
toward the northeast, there will be potential for multiple rounds
of thunderstorms across MO into AR. While motions look to be
progressive for the most part, and the potential exists for a
single broken NNW/SSE axis of storms to form...sweeping west to
east...low to mid-level winds (20-30 kt 850-700 mb layer) could
support a few isolated instances of backbuilding and/or training,
enough to allow for 1 to 2+ inches of rain in an hour. These
higher rates and spotty 2 to 4+ inch totals could result in flash
flooding should they fall atop hydrologically sensitive regions of
the Ozarks or western AR (due to recent heavy rain).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Hs1VRbnIdSqC7CM3mCckxGqMVQnicIxzR09vQ6K7Q4iSXfLpNkRUjmG7_Uppe-E5yv2= 6G_BGQa0z11FdW6GgUI_VtM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39349366 38969270 38139185 36869135 35939131=20
34989157 34269246 33889384 34639466 36569470=20
38579490 39259474=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071907
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-072305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0353
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...northwestern Missouri, southwestern Iowa, far
northeastern Kansas, and far southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071905Z - 072305Z

Summary...Scattered showers/thunderstorms were increasing in
coverage and intensity near/north of Kansas City while drifting
north into the discussion area. Ground conditions are sensitive.=20
Flash flooding is possible on at least an isolated basis for the
next few hours.

Discussion...Fairly progressive convection was drifting northward
from Kansas City to St. Joseph and vicinity at around 20-25 knots.
On its current path, the shower/thunderstorm activity is expected
to traverse portions of northwestern Missouri and southwestern
Iowa in the next 2-3 hours. As this convection moves through, 1.9
inch PW values in the pre-convective airmass and 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE will support efficient rainfall rates. MRMS rainfall
estimates were already depicting 1 inch/hr rates at times.=20
Meanwhile, ground conditions are sensitive, with 6-10 inches of
rainfall having occurred over the past 72 hours over parts of the
discussion area. FFGs are relatively low (below 1 inch/hr in
spots) as a result.

Despite the aforementioned progressive nature of the convection,
at least a spotty/isolated flash flood risk will exist over the
next 2-3 hours as this convection moves through.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!41DmGtkMpnA6UtZ6pEvQoIBr_nr4EmUpW1AU3U_OSImNGGu2UEjr5Xqa1zNdnYwGwguj= mIESxPiy3R97CAmURG0HyXQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41349565 41249380 40549288 39639286 39149339=20
39109462 39389563 40359643 41059642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072007
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-072305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0353...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Corrected for graphic

Areas affected...northwestern Missouri, southwestern Iowa, far
northeastern Kansas, and far southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071905Z - 072305Z

Summary...Scattered showers/thunderstorms were increasing in
coverage and intensity near/north of Kansas City while drifting
north into the discussion area. Ground conditions are sensitive.=20
Flash flooding is possible on at least an isolated basis for the
next few hours.

Discussion...Fairly progressive convection was drifting northward
from Kansas City to St. Joseph and vicinity at around 20-25 knots.
On its current path, the shower/thunderstorm activity is expected
to traverse portions of northwestern Missouri and southwestern
Iowa in the next 2-3 hours. As this convection moves through, 1.9
inch PW values in the pre-convective airmass and 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE will support efficient rainfall rates. MRMS rainfall
estimates were already depicting 1 inch/hr rates at times.=20
Meanwhile, ground conditions are sensitive, with 6-10 inches of
rainfall having occurred over the past 72 hours over parts of the
discussion area. FFGs are relatively low (below 1 inch/hr in
spots) as a result.

Despite the aforementioned progressive nature of the convection,
at least a spotty/isolated flash flood risk will exist over the
next 2-3 hours as this convection moves through.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9XgVroZyUULFMPieqbTXMnQHPu7bkn_gRiJgEv6_hZNt5Ri344xhq874KrhS76aM4_2Z= 1eKE0Exm6rsur95cH8rRmQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41349565 41249380 40549288 39639286 39149339=20
39109462 39389563 40359643 41059642=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072121
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-080219-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0354
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of Illinois into central Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072119Z - 080219Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue through the
early evening.

Discussion...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms continue to
persist across the discussion area and are generally focused along
and just south of a surface boundary extending from southern
surburbs of Chicago Metro southeastward to Columbus, OH. Illinois
portions of this front are augmented by outflows from prior
convection that are currently located near Peoria/Ottawa and
vicinity. In the airmass undisturbed by convection and south of
the front, areas of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 2.1 inch PW values
were supporting efficient rainfall rates with the most persistent
and slowest-moving activity. Rain rates nearing 2 inches/hr have
been common - especially in Illinois. Meanwhile, steering flow
and shear aloft are both weak, allowing for slow and at times
erratic movement along with outflow-driven convective evolution.=20
This scenario will support a continued flash flood risk for the
next several hours, with peak rain rates occasionally exceeding
1-1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds in place across the discussion area.

The ongoing scenario supporting flooding should persist for at
least another 2-4 hours, with models/CAMs suggesting some
potential for convection to linger through sunset. Thereafter,
nocturnal boundary layer cooling and widespread convective
overturning should cause the flash flood risk to get progressively
more isolated with time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ct0lno9VC4Hp4fMqFTC6CfOCXDE_tHTG4bxZYoI3w5mYQ0DmhqqsZZP_EN3M-sUR_uZ= -NqRpZHAxJPNf5wZS-oIUxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42108826 41048527 39218477 39518786 41119031=20
41988961=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080028
FFGMPD
ALZ000-080326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080026Z - 080326Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are producing spots
of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. Flash flooding is possible -
especially in urbanized and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Scattered clusters of thunderstorms continue to
persist within an abundantly moist, moderately unstable
environment (2+ inch PW, 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE). These storms
continue in a marginally sheared environment, with weak westerly
steering flow and mergers of multiple, maturing cold pools
resulting in several areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. FFG
thresholds of 2 inch/hr should be exceeded on an isolated to
perhaps scattered basis as storms migrate slowly over the next 2-3
hours. Rain rates of approx 1 inch/hr could affect the Birmingham
Metro area over the next hour or so, posing an urban flash flood
risk.

Storms are currently past the peak of the diurnal cycle, with
gradually lessening surface-based instability and widespread
convective overturning expected to eventually lead to a weakening
trend of convection that should gradually lower flash flood
threat. This process may take at least 2-4 hours to unfold.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-zMyzsFYQrDrhg6WXn6vxSlkiOEgU3s-JquhGrmjRQlyaAheloQoOYGmdi6VWyEWqrwL= CTYQ7wzbZgi08A91EIy3t8s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34138708 34128591 33288535 32748524 32288598=20
32368760 32718824 33918819=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080056
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080654-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0356
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma into much of Missouri and
far eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080054Z - 080654Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will persist across the
discussion area for at least the next 3-6 hours.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts three separate
areas of short-term flash flood potential. The first is near
Springfield, MO, where local FFG exceedance (and ~2 inch/hr rain
rates) was noted due to a quasi-linear complex in that area.=20
Another was near West Plains through Poplar Bluff, MO, where
clusters of deep convection were migrating slowly northward while
exhibiting merging behavior. Lastly, across northwestern MO near
St. Joseph, convection has redeveloped beneath a mid-level vort
max centered over northeast KS that is spreading locally heavy
downpours back into sensitive locales that have experienced 6-10
inches of rainfall over the past 72 hours. Flash flooding is
possible downstream of each of these locales in the short term, as moisture/buoyancy profiles (particularly 2 inch PW values) and
ascent aloft with mid-level waves traversing the region continue
to support deep convection with occasional merging/backbuilding
despite a gradual loss of surface heating.

With time, increasing convergence along a branch of the low-level
jet over northeast Oklahoma will result in scattered, renewed
thunderstorm development from near Tulsa into far southwestern
Missouri. Similar thermodynamic profiles will continue to support
deep, slow-moving convection with locally heavy rainfall potential
and an isolated flash flood risk. Furthermore, portions of
northeastern Oklahoma have experienced 2.5-7 inch rainfall totals
over the past 48 hours, and ground conditions remain sensitive
from that antecedent rainfall (FFG thresholds around 1-1.5
inch/hr). At least isolated flash flood potential will develop
from this activity over the course of the evening and overnight
hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_beDO6iyBFIG-OlaybcDtW_0pt8MgdVP1RrAZmuzbZtlA91H1zlmvHafJrzG_NvcsTD= ThN5LwID8dKbQO5hQBI-X4s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OAX...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40569537 40499470 40099382 39429305 38779187=20
38139074 37449022 36729047 36569136 36569344=20
36029457 35609577 35709685 36679707 37089680=20
37549592 38109543 39279539 40319556=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080126
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-080624-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0357
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...western/central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080124Z - 080624Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible
through the next 3-5 hours (04-06Z, or 11p-1a central).

Discussion...Robust thunderstorm development has occurred over
western North Dakota - primarily due to a substantial mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward atop a very moist/buoyant
airmass (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE). The storms are exhibiting fairly high
coverage especially in northwest portions of the state, with
several mergers supporting estimated 1 inch/hr rain rates in some
storms despite fast movement (northward at around 30-35 knots).
The storms are traversing areas that are relatively dry (per NASA
Sport soil moisture estimates), with antecedent conditions being
dry in the 72 hours prior to storm development. FFG thresholds
are in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range areawide, and with steering flow
parallel to the orientation of ongoing convection, it is plausible
that isolated instances of FFG exceedance/flash flooding are
possible in the short term.=20

The extent of flash flood risk will depend largely on evolution of
convective mode over the next few hours. The relatively high
coverage of storms and 30-35F surface dewpoint depressions seem to
suggest that a quick evolution to linear, forward-propagating
structures might be favored. Even if this evolution happens
fairly quickly, the degree of forcing and instability should still
support local backbuilding/merging of cells and spots of FFG
exceedance. Earlier HREF runs tend to migrate most convection
into far southern Canada after 04-05Z or so, which could temper
the flash flood threat across the discussion area should that
scenario play out as advertised. Isolated flash flooding is
possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5CNeU9VCRjXnLngfN0hIVUB2002kjktArdRMKs79jbRDviV37uddPWNe6GLQc5zOI4UP= 6bczIG7MJ4GoGePtPks0kGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49050166 48979992 48139917 46519959 45910101=20
46080380 47550409 48980393=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080129
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-080624-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0357...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
928 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Corrected for graphic

Areas affected...western/central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080124Z - 080624Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible
through the next 3-5 hours (04-06Z, or 11p-1a central).

Discussion...Robust thunderstorm development has occurred over
western North Dakota - primarily due to a substantial mid-level
shortwave trough ejecting northeastward atop a very moist/buoyant
airmass (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE). The storms are exhibiting fairly high
coverage especially in northwest portions of the state, with
several mergers supporting estimated 1 inch/hr rain rates in some
storms despite fast movement (northward at around 30-35 knots).
The storms are traversing areas that are relatively dry (per NASA
Sport soil moisture estimates), with antecedent conditions being
dry in the 72 hours prior to storm development. FFG thresholds
are in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range areawide, and with steering flow
parallel to the orientation of ongoing convection, it is plausible
that isolated instances of FFG exceedance/flash flooding are
possible in the short term.=20

The extent of flash flood risk will depend largely on evolution of
convective mode over the next few hours. The relatively high
coverage of storms and 30-35F surface dewpoint depressions seem to
suggest that a quick evolution to linear, forward-propagating
structures might be favored. Even if this evolution happens
fairly quickly, the degree of forcing and instability should still
support local backbuilding/merging of cells and spots of FFG
exceedance. Earlier HREF runs tend to migrate most convection
into far southern Canada after 04-05Z or so, which could temper
the flash flood threat across the discussion area should that
scenario play out as advertised. Isolated flash flooding is
possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9qrECRjMtjgEphKARHmbCqfbk64D94vPxNNIFXD-kjfEJVTRKIWkKR4v3DL6J76P4A7m= nBDQ0z0mXwjgNlvQPp84PJw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49050166 48989993 48399844 47069790 45869786=20
45900006 45910101 46080380 47550409 48980393=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080316
FFGMPD
MOZ000-080715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1114 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080314Z - 080715Z

SUMMARY...Relatively slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with
extreme rainfall rates will continue to progress gradually off to
the northeast over the next few hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
inches/hour and slow cell-motions may foster some 3 to 5 inches
totals going through 07Z (2AM CDT). Flash flooding is already
occurring and locally significant runoff problems/impacts are
expected over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined mid to upper-level trough and associated low center
ejecting gradually off to the northeast across southwest MO.
Cold-topped convection with extreme rainfall rates are already
impacting portions of central and southern MO, with a
well-organized axis of showers and thunderstorms oriented
north/south across the region that is ejecting off to the east and
northeast.

MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg are in place along with anomalous PWs
of near 2 inches. A convergent low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is
already in place which is favoring fairly strong moisture
transport, and it is occurring underneath the left-exit region of
an upper-level jet streak. Deep layer forcing/ascent associated
with this is taking advantage of a very warm/tropical column to
support the ongoing convection with extreme rainfall rate
potential.

Rainfall rates at least in the short-term are likely to be on the
order of 2 to 3 inches/hour, and with the slow cell-motions and
organized nature of the convection in satellite and radar, some
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches will be possible over just the
next few hours.

Flash flooding is ongoing, and locally significant runoff
problems/impacts are expected which may include considerable urban
flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ZdkiqQeuRDwIF1eoHxmhL5FEIZ1fGLLMEMHj3qBjurCXTv3Jht4dvQGQbuR5YXHeHpX= ZlAUgYPKS5OjBk2couMBB70$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 39759240 39689179 39029124 38049105 37259129=20
37039201 37299275 38409309 39339299=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080616
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0359
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest
MO...Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080615Z - 081215Z

SUMMARY...A locally significant and life-threatening flash flood
event is expected to evolve late tonight and into Monday morning
across portions of the Ozark Plateau. The development of
backbuilding and training showers and thunderstorms with extreme
rainfall rates occurring over areas of rugged terrain will be the
driver of this event.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV satellite imagery shows a very
well-defined mid to upper level trough and associated closed low
ejecting northeast across southwest to central MO early this
morning. Meanwhile, around the southwest flank of this energy is
an increasingly southwest low-level jet which is forecast to
strengthen to 30 to 40+ kts toward dawn. The nose of this
low-level jet will promote a combination of speed convergence
along with enhanced warm air advection and a corresponding uptick
in moisture and instability transport.

Already a substantial pool of instability is noted in the latest
RAP analysis across central and eastern OK with MLCAPE values of
as much as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. And the RAP data shows already a
notable increase in the 850/925 mb moisture transport which is
aiming up through northeast OK. PWs across the region are
currently on the order of 1.7 to 1.9 inches which is a solid 2+
standard deviations above normal.

A combination of enhancing moisture transport coupled with the
advance of strong instability/warm air advection will support
increasing ascent for organized convection that will favor extreme
rainfall rates. These rainfall rates based on a consensus of the
00Z HREF/REFS guidance and HRRR/RRFS solutions are expected to
easily reach into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range. Supporting this
will be at least some shear with effective bulk shear near 30 kts.
However, another factor will be a favorable orientation of the
Corfidi vectors as the upwind propagation vectors are generally
point south on the order of 10 to 20 kts, and this will strongly
support an environment conducive for backbuilding and training
convection with upscale growth anticipated over the next few
hours. The threat area will include northeast OK, southeast KS,
southwest MO and northwest AR.

Increase coverage and organization of convection along with the
slow cell-motions and training concerns is expected to support
potential through early this morning of as much as 4 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated heavier amounts not out of the question
through 12Z (7AM CDT). Additional rains are expected after this
period as the MCS activity is likely to persist well into the
morning hours.

Localized high-end flash flooding, with significant and
life-threatening impacts will be a major concern this morning and
especially since some of these heavy rainfall amounts are likely
to involve some of the rugged terrain of the Ozark Plateau. While
not everyone will see extreme rainfall, a Flash Flood Emergency
level event is definitely possible somewhere in the MPD area given
the setup going through Monday morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87sG8mMB0H_hhbl6-ZVw3Rxcf59AKMcLy9BBIsqZJsQV4fZL0LNZkJTcupOd1aas0oL6= ywqt3ZPdUb_8kHgEbTi2Ylw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38049396 37999266 37569182 36689161 36199201=20
35889271 35759367 35829501 36399602 37099631=20
37689602 37949518=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081212
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0360
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozark Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081210Z - 081600Z

SUMMARY...Life-threatening flash flooding is ongoing across
portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma this morning.
Backbuilding and training thunderstorms with a history of 4 in/hr radar-estimated rainfall rates will continue for another few
hours. Slightly faster southward propagation should gradually
reduce storm total rainfall amounts into Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...An MCS across the Moksarok region consisting of
backbuilding and training convection continues to produce
prodigious amounts of rain this morning. Radar-estimated storm
total rainfall amounts from the Tulsa radar show amounts
approaching 9 inches in southeastern Kansas, northwest of
Columbus. A larger swath of 5 inches or more extends to the
southern and western suburbs of Joplin. Numerous flooding reports
have been received as a result on the ongoing rainfall.

The MCS responsible for these prodigious rainfall amounts has
begun to shift southward over the past couple hours. The storms
have shifted following greatest instability, with amounts over
3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE just to the west of the MCS. PWATs in the
area are around 2 inches around the storms, with values over 1.75
inches to the west of the storms. 850 mb flow is 30-40 kt out of
the southwest, which is very effectively advecting that moisture
and instability into the MCS, allowing it to maintain its strength
and longevity.

Since the main axis of storms, now entering Arkansas, has begin to
drift southward, expect that the heaviest storm total rainfall
amounts will remain into Kansas and Missouri, with lesser amounts
further south into Arkansas. Nevertheless, instantaneous radar
estimated rainfall rates still remain over 2 inches per hour
across the northeast corner of Oklahoma and the southwest corner
of Missouri. Thus, these rates are still more than enough,
especially given the slow movement of the complex, to produce
additional flash flooding. The topography of the Ozark Plateau is
also locally enhancing flooding impacts as the runoff quickly
drains into the local basins. Locally significant and
life-threatening flash flooding will continue for the next few
hours as a result.

Over the next few hours, expect that the storms will gradually
increase their forward speed towards the south, and with daytime
heating well underway, expect the southwesterly advection to
become increasingly disrupted by the localized instability. This
in turn will lead to a diurnally typical weakening of the overall
organization of the storms, so the flooding threat should wane
towards late morning due to these factors. However, until then the
flooding potential will remain significant.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6a3nW_lU926OkqNiRq38KWJ9lzBeUF36DvdlsdawvVeaC1W-Pf8OgQsxLnQfJQcBnw62= BPCIVHLiHdCqO0Kwj_ra3hY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37699500 37649466 37199418 37379375 37389332=20
37149293 36919260 36439206 35759178 35219219=20
34889265 34949339 35269398 35759457 36039485=20
36359525 36789561 37299554 37629530=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081214
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0360
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 AM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozark Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081210Z - 081600Z

SUMMARY...Life-threatening flash flooding is ongoing across
portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma this morning.
Backbuilding and training thunderstorms with a history of 4 in/hr radar-estimated rainfall rates will continue for another few
hours. Slightly faster southward propagation should gradually
reduce storm total rainfall amounts into Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...An MCS across the Moksarok region consisting of
backbuilding and training convection continues to produce
prodigious amounts of rain this morning. Radar-estimated storm
total rainfall amounts from the Tulsa radar show amounts
approaching 9 inches in southeastern Kansas, northwest of
Columbus. A larger swath of 5 inches or more extends to the
southern and western suburbs of Joplin. Numerous flooding reports
have been received as a result on the ongoing rainfall.

The MCS responsible for these prodigious rainfall amounts has
begun to shift southward over the past couple hours. The storms
have shifted following greatest instability, with amounts over
3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE just to the west of the MCS. PWATs in the
area are around 2 inches around the storms, with values over 1.75
inches to the west of the storms. 850 mb flow is 30-40 kt out of
the southwest, which is very effectively advecting that moisture
and instability into the MCS, allowing it to maintain its strength
and longevity.

Since the main axis of storms, now entering Arkansas, has begun to
drift southward, expect that the heaviest storm total rainfall
amounts will remain into Kansas and Missouri, with lesser amounts
further south into Arkansas. Nevertheless, instantaneous radar
estimated rainfall rates still remain over 2 inches per hour
across the northeast corner of Oklahoma and the southwest corner
of Missouri. Thus, these rates are still more than enough,
especially given the slow movement of the complex, to produce
additional flash flooding. The topography of the Ozark Plateau is
also locally enhancing flooding impacts as the runoff quickly
drains into the local basins. Locally significant and
life-threatening flash flooding will continue for the next few
hours as a result.

Over the next few hours, expect that the storms will gradually
increase their forward speed towards the south, and with daytime
heating well underway, expect the southwesterly advection to
become increasingly disrupted by the localized instability. This
in turn will lead to a diurnally typical weakening of the overall
organization of the storms, so the flooding threat should wane
towards late morning due to these factors. However, until then the
flooding potential will remain significant.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_QG8HwqnANtLdoYtLMbS9-VzZHr6fpLWOSFc_MZzWESNDNw6thjpP2DSduaxhC2_dzbR= 9dDhUAS92dmAdxjdluKdKaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37699500 37649466 37199418 37379375 37389332=20
37149293 36919260 36439206 35759178 35219219=20
34889265 34949339 35269398 35759457 36039485=20
36359525 36789561 37299554 37629530=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081628
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-082200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0361
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1227 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081624Z - 082200Z

SUMMARY...Bands of training showers and thunderstorms are
developing across far eastern Missouri, Illinois and eastern Iowa.
Flash flooding is possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing
across Missouri and Illinois, which are expected to spread into
eastern Iowa through this afternoon. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a
tongue of SBCAPE over 2,000 J/kg over much of central Illinois on
either side of a warm front which is draped over northern Illinois
into eastern Iowa. A potent upper level negatively tilted
shortwave is taking advantage of the abundant moisture over the
entire region to result in the widespread convective coverage,
especially over central Illinois. In addition to the instability
already present over the area, PWATs are 2-3 sigma above normal
for this time of year over the whole area, amounting to 1.75 to 2
inches, with locally higher amounts near the thunderstorms over
central Illinois. This moisture-rich and saturated atmosphere is
well primed to support storms capable of very heavy rainfall,
which could result in areas of flash flooding. HREF analysis shows
an over 60% chance of exceeding 3-hourly FFGs between 18Z and 21Z
over central Illinois, with a 35-45% chance of exceeding FFGs into
eastern Iowa from Davenport north. Cyclonic flow from
southwesterly near St. Louis to southeasterly into eastern Iowa
supports the continued development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon given the supportive lift from
the upper levels and abundant moisture available to support many
of the heavy-rain producing storms that develop.

CAMs guidance also shows a large area of disturbed weather
generally shifting northeastward with time across Illinois throug
the afternoon. Due to the widespread nature of the storms,
localized training appears inevitable. Should these storms train
over urban or flood sensitive areas, from St. Louis through
Peoria, Springfield, Champaign, Bloomington, and the Quad Cities,
localized flash flooding will be possible.=20

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-L46sPqBEVT-uBpK2bHENVQplhSKxOxVC4e0ZIh9bFk3l_vjWjj4MRYERWluqjyb0T3h= iIXMR4NCVNzVSunkoQZPnkA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43469144 43218976 42788888 41578850 40148773=20
39118795 38288961 37829006 38199107 38969148=20
40389192 42439264 42929266 43179245=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081842
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Northern Alabama to Northwest Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081840Z - 090000Z

SUMMARY...Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed with
diurnal heating, abundant moisture, and ample instability. Flash
flooding will be likely, especially in urban areas.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed
into a series of line and clusters across portions of the South
this afternoon. These storms are occurring over areas that have
been hard-hit with heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours or so.
This has resulted in 1-hr FFGs below 1.5 in/hr in some areas of
northern Alabama, with widespread averages below 2 in/hr. 3-hrly
FFGs are below 2.5 inches over this same area. FFGs are somewhat
higher into northern Georgia as well as central Tennessee. The
storms are forming in a very favorable environment for flash
flooding. In addition to the low FFGs, PWATs are over 2.2 inches
over much of northern Alabama, and over 2 inches area-wide. This
is 2.5 to 3 sigma above normal for this time of year, so it's
unusually moist. SBCAPE values are between 2,000 J/kg to the east
over Georgia to almost 4,000 along the MS/AL border and into
western Tennessee. Thus, these two critical components to storm
coverage and severity are about as favorable for producing heavy
rainfall as one can get. A couple limiting factors will be an
overhead ridge, causing broad anticyclonic flow over this portion
of the South, as well as an average moisture convergence over the
area. This is likely a result of a lack of defining forcing
features due to the upper level ridging in place as well as a lack
of well-defined surface features for the storms to organize
around. Thus, at first, the cold pools of any storms that develop
will likely be the dominant features forcing the formation of new
storms. This will make for a chaotic storm pattern across the
area. The weak flow however will support localized training and
backbuilding since moisture will be abundant.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms will develop rather chaotically,
due to the lack of synoptic scale forcing, instead favoring local
cold pools or topography being the driving factors forcing new
storm development. Since the flow is rather weak, training and
backbuilding will remain a distinct possibility, as well as slow
storm motions all supporting localized extended duration of heavy
rainfall across this area. Due to the low FFGs, especially over
northern Alabama, as well as the numerous urban concerns, flash
flooding is considered likely into this evening.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4quEEeYJ1TsioV96RuaAyQAke8gk8JSqPDPkUCOQj-7WldIcX-y9tDfNToWI6KCe1K_7= eu_e7_pWgIA5VvJDcSFvQow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36368681 36208607 35838534 35418463 34838411=20
33418421 33148699 34348813 35998741=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081944
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0363
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Illinois and Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081941Z - 090045Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms will lift north and east from
eastern Illinois and potentially redevelop back over Illinois
through early evening. Flash flooding is likely to continue.

DISCUSSION...Numerous heavy thunderstorms with training instances
over eastern Illinois are shifting into Indiana and toward the
Chicago metro area this afternoon. Corridors of training activity
are occurring and have produced estimated hourly rainfall of 1.5
to 2" in southern IL/IN. Instability is ample ahead of the current
activity (SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg), so further repeating activity
can be expected to continue. Moisture is quite elevated with PW
around 2.1" across central/southern IL. Furthermore, flash flood
guidance is lower over north-central IL/central IN and in the
Chicago metro area, generally around 1.5"/3hr.

This activity is ahead of a potent shortwave trough over eastern
Iowa that is lifting NNE toward western WI. Fresh instability will
continue to advect in from the south and may allow further
redevelop over southern IL/IN this evening which is seen in recent
HRRR runs. Flash flooding is considered likely into this evening
given the existing activity moving into more sensitive areas.
Further development this evening may warrant additional
discussions.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-vrPbWwDrgvQOAAhlMjrEiUvX_pugcRJ3GrZnQ1oKAG-_kRUyhcZ-PNGRWc9QYbkXFlp= -9Fn1Klp_ekMPepSpt5h6ls$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42478910 42458786 42238767 41778741 41728703=20
41738634 40738582 39218659 38898794 39388866=20
40808883 41538911=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082142
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-090240-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0364
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Driftless Region and central/southern Wisconsin.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082140Z - 090240Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to lift over western
and southern Wisconsin through this evening and extend west of the
Mississippi River over the Driftless region. Localized flash
flooding is possible through this evening.

DISCUSSION...An axis of heavy thunderstorms are tracking north
with a low over the northeast corner of Iowa as of 2130Z. Activity
along a warm front extends across southern WI which will also lift
north and impact areas farther east including the Milwaukee metro
area. Localized training/stalling has occurred over far
southeastern MN ahead of the low which can be expected to continue
as the low tracks north. Hourly rainfall of 1.5" has occurred in
the stalled areas. Flash flood guidance is generally higher in
this discussion area, around 2.5"/3hr, but localized areas of
increased terrain (in the Driftless area along the MS river
between WI and IA/MN and urban areas such as Milwaukee have
locally reduced FFG around 2"/3hr. There is an instability
gradient with the warm front which will continue to increase over
WI as the front and low lift north.

Recent CAMs have a decent handle on this activity with the RRFS
notably heavier over western WI than the HRRR. This threat area
will continue to be monitored as the forcing lifts north -
subsequent discussions overnight may be warranted.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9jvvxB9HxrBPARZhOEb5Vc93YSRgrH4WdvLbQ4vCclnlM8mlGmrH3EiLuu2F11xo2WAi= ApvUoYKh07pSr3MtPv8aC64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45389032 45138959 43648900 43348812 42738759=20
42418773 42318891 42098970 42769141 43869189=20
45099171=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082209
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-090330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0365
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Nebraska/Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082208Z - 090330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy thunderstorms should continue to expand in
coverage over southern Nebraska/northern Kansas through the
evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding should continue
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...A potent supercell with upward propagation influences
motion continues to drift east over southern Nebraska near a
frontal boundary. Counteracting flow, easterly in the low levels
and WSWly in the upper levels has made for slow movement and
increased duration of excessive rain which led to flash flooding
in Furnas County. Outflow from this activity should enable rapid
thunderstorm development in the instability gradient along and
south of the existing activity. A moist tongue with PW of 1.5"+ is
analyzed south and east of the activity with 1.7" in the source
region of southeast KS. This should feed new development which
would encounter the same counteracting flow once mature.

Recent HRRR runs are more scattered with activity this evening
while the RRFS is quite potent with multicell clusters developing
from the current activity and shifting to central KS through the
evening. The RRFS is more realistic given the environment and
there are new cells over north-central KS south of the main
supercell. Flash flood guidance is generally around 2.5"/3hr, so
flash flooding should be isolated in nature given the expected
coverage of heavy activity.

Supercell activity in northeast CO will also need to be monitors
and may track east over this area overnight, so that will be
monitored.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9dY6MkW--8RgRe3L9pU53t5tG7yemtFDFMBinJYz5XpmzhSr1R0X8FgB-y7FFClYm9ok= 7tnk3Un36JGuj20c5YyTsFw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40799825 40219674 39219668 38609699 38589835=20
38850037 39850131 40290076 40639921=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082242
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
642 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Illinois into Western Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082241Z - 090345Z

SUMMARY...Scattered heavy thunderstorms will continue to track
over southern Illinois and move over western Kentucky this
evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding should continue
through this evening, particularly for areas that are urban or
have saturated soils.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is over southeast MO approaching the Miss
River while a trough near the MO/IL border is triggering new
thunderstorms where earlier ones occurred today. A blob of 2.1" PW
centered south-central IL with an instability gradient generally
south from where earlier activity repeated over central IL should
maintain current activity and promote further rapid development.

Low flash flood guidance, generally around 1.5"/3hr extends ENE
from St. Louis where heavy rain occurred in the past day (with
only the past few hours for the eastern side of central IL as well
as in western KY ahead of the MCV track. Heavy rainfall exceeding
2"/hr is estimated from the MCV storms which have increased
duration from the tight cyclonic motion.=20

Recent HRRR runs have a decent handle on the MCV and its eastward
track while the RRFS is heavier with south-central IL activity
(while generally missing the MCV). Flash flooding is considered
possible due to the more scattered nature and decent forward
motion. Downstream discussions are possible given continued
instability in this warm/moist sector overnight.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!836EKE3AKSCtyFV5migQIu0gJ8BDl5dhlXejWmJZ3DINU7HQr_VTpHL0xMht38ntJJUX= XQvdap6nWg5Va6zm26-TH1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40318964 39758820 38658740 37808699 37368680=20
36958645 36698703 36638785 36508850 36728955=20
37588981 38769078 39449116 39889060=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090334
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-090930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0367
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KS...Western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090332Z - 090930Z

SUMMARY...A strong and somewhat progressive complex of very heavy
showers and thunderstorms will continue to advance off to the
east-southeast going into the overnight hours. Locally extreme
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with some spotty 4 to 5 inch
totals will be possible along its path. A few instances of mainly
urban flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a strong
convective complex with very cold cloud tops advancing gradually
off to the east-southeast across central KS. Some overshooting
tops with this activity are pushing -75 to -80C, and the MCS is
producing extremely heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour
based on the latest MRMS data.

This activity is advancing along the north side of a very strong
instability gradient with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg
pooled across areas of central to eastern KS. This is also in
rather close proximity to a quasi-stationary front and a
downstream surface trough which is intercepting the nose of a 30
to 40 kt southwest low-level jet.

A combination of strong thermodynamics and fairly robust moisture
transport into the southern flank of the MCS is likely to sustain
this activity for several more hours as it advances off to the
eas-southeast. Extremely high rainfall rates will be supported in
the near-term given the environment, and while this MCS is
somewhat progressive, the complex will be capable of yielding some
spotty 4 to 5 inch rainfall amounts along its path. A consensus of
the latest HRRR, RRFS and WoFS data all support this.

Downstream areas of eastern KS are generally a bit more sensitive
with greater concentrations of soil moisture and locally somewhat
elevated streamflows depending on location. These additional rains
may encourage some runoff problems, and this would especially be
the case over the more sensitive urban corridors such as around
Emporia and Topeka.

Generally the latest HREF and REFS guidance suggests the greatest
runoff threat would tend to be over central and eastern KS, with
areas of western MO perhaps not as susceptible given that most of
the model guidance suggests the MCS should tend to be weakening or
perhaps accelerating downstream later tonight which would lessen
the rainfall totals here. Regardless, a few instances of mainly
urban flash flooding are likely before any weakening trend takes
place.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-EzlVTxa83_vPbWXjUPYedYilFXYAITCS4CmYjHYQ8313I1XITndJbwDy4-tpeYd4PxV= xsuxRLe-UX1cd6pL0CrYUJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39559640 39479532 39239398 38579339 37779363=20
37389431 37379534 37559646 37799715 38309791=20
39059797 39449733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090807
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-091405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern IN...Western and Central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090805Z - 091405Z

SUMMARY...Concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected to increase this morning. Locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms with potential for backbuilding and training cells
will drive as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall with
isolated 5+ inch totals possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCV continues to advance across areas of
western and central KY early this morning which is facilitating
areas of locally backbuilding and training showers and
thunderstorms. The energy is embedded within a moisture-rich
environment with PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and is being influenced
by an uptick in a 850/925 mb west-southwest low-level jet that is
reaching 30+ kts around the vort's western and southwest flanks.

This low-level jet energy is transporting a narrow axis of
instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
from the MO Bootheel region. Radar trends shows a fair amount of
backbuilding and cell-training over just the last hour as
favorable upwind propagation vectors become aligned against the
strengthening low-level jet.

There are several pieces of guidance including recent runs of the
RRFS and the earlier 00Z REFS which indicate a substantial threat
for heavy rainfall through early this morning. This is supported
to a lesser degree by the HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance, but even
these solutions have some heavy rainfall to varying degrees over
the next several hours.

Given the very moist environment, kinematics, and current radar
trends, the wetter consensus of hires CAMs generally seems to be
more plausible at this time. This would suggest some areas of
additional rainfall reaching 2 to 4 inches with isolated 5+ inch
totals possible where the better cell-training sets up. Overall,
the heaviest rains should focus over central and western KY, but
some portions of far southern IN may get into some of these rains
as well given proximity of the vort center. These rains are likely
to drive at least scattered areas of flash flooding going through
the morning hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5C0XGhjt3oia054tdICN2SARcQQkGh_GlGPqdp7CWpc6rZ80gH31rAo0M3G9XGKhWxT3= fEnxlN-NF9z9n1vYDlAbv1A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38818551 38578468 37998451 37418472 36898530=20
36558623 36628770 36998816 37438822 37858791=20
38338690 38718627=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090937
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-091400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0369
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern IN...Far Southern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090935Z - 091400Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates will support some potential for localized flash
flooding through early this morning.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting MCV that is embedded within a very moist
regime across northern IN will be lifting northeastward this
morning into portions of far southern Lower MI. An area of heavy
showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour is already accompanying the vort energy with recent
GOES-E IR satellite imagery showing some recent cooling of the
convective cloud tops and suggestive of stronger forcing/ascent.

Instability is rather modest with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000
J/kg, but PWs are locally near 2 inches, and there is a southwest
low-level jet of near 30 kts nosing into the southwest flank of
the MCV. This coupled with weak propagation vectors is favoring
some backbuilding and cell-training concerns with the broader
convective mass.

Expect there to be some localized 2 to 3+ inch totals going
through mid-morning across areas of far northern IN and perhaps
edging into some areas of far southern Lower MI based on the
latest satellite and radar trends. Antecedent conditions perhaps
lean just a tad on the dry side, so it will take some areas of
cell-training to produce any flash flooding. As such, given the
environment and character of the ongoing convection, a localized
threat for some flash flooding will exist.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_PxzC_gosaKTAlX4ORZChbwY3a8PPMI5yXC3HlIajYu-0h-Stq9Zi1pgrvUPsjKIElxp= rAIdPPttN_SUyRUyHXH6Y1Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42468569 42378499 41688502 40888543 40268629=20
40468699 41098672 42108624=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090955
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-091300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090954Z - 091300Z

SUMMARY...An additional last round of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will maintain a threat for some additional areas of
flash flooding early this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
secondary small-scale MCS advancing east-southeast across eastern
KS early this morning in the wake of the much stronger and
high-impact severe MCS from overnight which had produced a fair
amount of urban flash flooding.

This latest round of MCS activity is associated with another vort
impulse advancing across the central Plains. It is interacting
with the north side of an instability gradient with MLCAPE values
of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. There is still a southwest low-level jet on
the order of 30+ kts nosing up across eastern KS and that will
tend to support this ongoing convection for a few more hours. Some
of this may be able to make it into west-central MO as well.

Gradually this last MCS should weaken toward and after 12Z, but
some localized additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will
be possible with this which may result in some additional runoff
problems or at least prolonging some of the earlier flash flooding
issues that materialized.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97Kx8Okem4MYJI6R8wTgABqQ51sEsD2o8lle_CpPYMtCbS83Mj6TVVKy3csdk6pYe3t8= u-YlS7yDo94Ex487iZQlOjo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39229601 38999472 38709391 38219344 37729373=20
37529467 37589549 37779650 38089717 38529740=20
39069694=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091201
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-091730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0371
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...Upstate South
Carolina...Portions of Western North Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091200Z - 091730Z

SUMMARY...Near stationary, very efficient rainfall producing
showers capable of 2"+/hr may result in quick 2-3" totals and
localized flash flooding potential this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts a weak shear axis with vorticity
center at the 700-500mb confluence zone from return stream off the
Sargasso Sea across SE GA and the influence from the northern
stream at a small weakness in the overall ridging across the Deep
South. Coincidentally, low to middle-level moisture is maximized
with Total PWats over 2-2.1" along the confluence axis through
depth. While deep layer profile is fairly moist adiabatic, there
is some departure that even minimal low level heating quickly adds
to the limited instability, as noted by initial peaks of sunlight
and on Visible imagery new convective cores have already been
developing.=20

While there is some convergence, the winds are very light though
depth limiting flux but also steering. This is allowing for near
zero cell motions to increase residency time for the deep warm
cloud/efficient rainfall production processes. Rates of 2"/hr are
probable for up to 1-2 hours with limited cold pool development.=20
As such, scattered incidents of 2-3" totals along the eastern side
of shortwave/confluence axis may result in localized rapid
inundation/flash flooding conditions, especially given proximity
to any urban center or along steeper terrain slopes/narrower upper
reaches of narrow watersheds.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L-SbzIG5gREKbSMj7HDlRuj9ZYvYb1ONttK1dIT4aBqTPLRbBXk3uyUG_QaHSs2yO9q= _yO1UfZsY363U_CbjQDt28M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35698212 35188149 34608180 34128263 32888339=20
32958412 33668457 34558413 34988346 35658278=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091349
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Kentucky & Adj poritons of S IND/S OH.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091350Z - 091930Z

SUMMARY...Decaying MCV with favorable upstream
redevelopment/back-building environment with capability of very
intense rates (2-2.5"/hr) over recently saturated grounds pose
another round of possible flash flooding incident(s).

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis denotes smaller
scale MCV persists along the Ohio River along the central KY/IND
border region, lifting northeastward; though upstream stronger MCV
and anticyclonic outflow channel is starting to encroach into the
lower Ohio River Valley, starting to dampen the favorable
divergence aloft, but not eliminate it fully yet. Pre-MCV
convective cells have been eroding downstream of the main
shortwave as they move into a more stable environment over E KY;
however, KLVX shows solid WAA in the wake of the MCV to keep
narrow ascent tendrils from west to east given the upstream
environment remains conditionally unstable with MLCAPEs still at
or above 2000 J/kg toward peak 3000 J/kg over SE MO.

VWP and RAP analysis also show solid west to west-southwesterly
25-30kts from 925-700mb across W KY from this unstable area. As
such, additional WAA convection has developed from SW IND
east-southeast into central KY feeding off the unstable air. This
air is also very moist with upper 95-99th/max percentiles of
values at or above 2" with some isolated 2.25". Given the winds,
flux is solid to support 2-2.5"/hr rain rates. However, with some
increasing capping at diurnal convective minimum, some mid-level
dNVA and reduced divergence aloft; there still may be a slight
downward trend in overall coverage for the next few hours.=20=20
However, as the next upper-level wave approaches, new stronger
round of convection is expected toward 18z.

Irrespective, the grounds have been recently saturated across much
off W KY into central KY and FFG values have rapidly dropped to
less than 1.5" in both 1-3hr values in W KY, though 1.5-2.5"/hr
over portions of the Cumberland Plateau of E KY, enough so to
include them into the potential for scattered incidents of
possible flash flooding through early afternoon.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_8Xe8v9oNyNiXMCPHRygjLptjcvLM88CUq5oCQ5T5vyryc7Wi0p0w_GcmLm_qXasj3KO= Djbwbz7Rx5eYm0J4T71b-x8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38828352 38458277 37458283 36928391 36758492=20
36718601 36708744 36808830 37328814 37768777=20
38268721 38508646 38678493=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092005
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0373
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Western Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092003Z - 100200Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of convection growing upcale in a highly
favorable environment for flash flooding are likely to cause flash
flooding in urban and flood prone areas through the rest of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of convection have formed across portions of
western Kentucky and northwestern Tennessee this afternoon. These
storms are in a highly favorable environment for producing heavy
rainfall. PWATs from SPC Mesoanalysis are as high as 2.2 inches.
Surface Based CAPE in a small portions of western Kentucky near
Paducah are over 4,500 J/kg. Corfidi Vectors are light and
variable, under 5 kts. Moisture transport could be a bit better,
but 925-850 average layer flow is about 15-20 kts out of the
southwest, implying that there is at least decent moisture
advection into the storms to replace the moisture lost due to
heavy rainfall. There are also few disturbances that could act as
forcing mechanisms, implying that the storms themselves and their
cold pools will likely be the predominant forcing mechanisms for
additional storms through the afternoon.

The storms are likely to continue building southeastward, and
while that would actually mean they are building away from the
highest instability, it is still orthogonal to the southwesterly
influx of moisture, which should allow the storms to continue to
train and remain aligned east-west, which is favorable for
continued training. The storms with the strongest cells have a
history of rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour, and given the
favorable set up, its entirely possible for the best training
storms to eclipse 3 inches per hour over the next few hours.

CAMs guidance remains poor in in handling the developing line of
storms. None of them really have where the storms have formed
handled well, though many of them suggests their upscale growth
over the next few hours to become linear towards the south and
east into the heart of Tennessee. Should that happen, the west
side of such a line should continue backbuilding given that
favorable southwesterly flow into such a line, which would keep
the flash flooding risk going.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_-C9ULE16yjwIe_QvloZEK3Z6j7dAt0fF4sryW51qLI9D0eY9_CcnjsQu7HVf7p9se8D= _8JtbtGZx0euip4iz111Jlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37298718 37118609 37098577 36728494 36168443=20
35678443 35178485 34898549 34948678 35168819=20
35408907 36128965 36968901 37158830=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100101
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100100Z - 100700Z

SUMMARY...A line of storms in western Indiana is moving into
Indianapolis with urban flash flooding concerns. The southern end
of the line could backbuild into tonight as the LLJ feeding the
line strengthens. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong line of thunderstorms is pushing
east-southeast across central Indiana this evening. Due to
backbuilding, ingestion of pre-line convection, and abundant
moisture and instability. This line has the potential to cause
flash flooding, especially in low-lying, flood prone, and urban
areas.

The line of storms with multiple cells of pre-line convection are
approaching the Indianapolis metro. PWATs to 2.2 inches, and an
instability maximum to 2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE are more than
sufficient to sustain the line of storms as it tracks into eastern
and southeastern Indiana over the next few hours. Moisture
transport is increasing ahead of the line with 925-850
southwesterly flow of 15-20 kts. These winds are likely to
increase as sunset rapidly approaching and the nocturnal low level
jet strengthens.

Besides imminent urban flash flooding, the primary concern going
forward is the southern end of the line getting "hung up" due to
being on the forward edge of the aforementioned southwesterly
flow. This will likely support the storms stringing out in a
northwest to southeast oriented line, perpendicular to the flow,
which will support training storms. It appears likely that should
this happen, a narrow line of much heavier storm total rainfall
amounts could occur. CAMs guidance is in very poor agreement with
this line, even on what is occurring right now, but several of
them suggest that a localized maximum in southeast Indiana could
reach as high as 10 inches of rain. FFGs are higher south of
Indianapolis than north of it, which should help to mitigate flash
flooding concerns to the spots where the heaviest rains are most
persistent and urban areas, but, at 1.5 to 2.5 inches per hour,
they are attainable by this line given the very favorable amounts
of atmospheric moisture, instability, and moisture flux in the
environment ahead of the storms. The storms have a history of
rainfall rates over 3 inches per hour, and there's little reason
to think this potential won't persist across Indiana and likely
into Ohio and Kentucky for the next several hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Ge-Zj8unKhzj5hoqqjwhSGlZtxPFPd52K_rNf1BzPfHoVQ09cdveQOGJ3zFIbO1oyT4= wwCichZ7-_VzVsCFol1JMaI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40198660 40118596 39998544 39738462 39238427=20
38588476 38388491 38168555 38218602 38548683=20
38858734 38968747 39218747 39508716 39778685=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100418
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-100930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Eastern ND...Western MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100416Z - 100930Z

SUMMARY...Ax axis of strong thunderstorms will impact areas of
eastern SD, eastern ND and western MN going through the overnight
hours. Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches in as little as 30
minutes, and some localized 2 to 3+ inch totals may result in some
isolated urban flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows an axis of strong
to severe thunderstorms advancing progressively off to the east
across the Dakotas. This is occurring as shortwave energy/height
falls associated with an upper trough over the northern Rockies
advances easy and interacts with the pool of very strong
instability and anomalous moisture surging northward ahead of a
cold front.

A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts is yielding enhanced
moisture and instability transport up across the Red River Valley
of the North. MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/kg are noted
locally, with PWs of 1.5+ inches which are a solid 2 standard
deviations above normal. While the approaching QLCS will be
progressive enough to generally mitigate any widespread flash
flooding threat, the rainfall rates with the convection should be
quite intense, and capable of reaching as high as 1.0 to 1.5
inches in 30 minutes.

The latest hires CAM guidance suggests some localized rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches may materialize as the main QLCS advances
downstream across eastern ND, eastern SD and eventually western
MN. The 00Z HREF/REFS suite does depict some 30 to 50 percent
probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG exceeded over the next
several hours. This may cause some isolated urban flash flooding
concerns and especially given the very high sub-hourly rainfall
rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9F4o5J_Plwe6LbAc92VUkjCCQs1GBtyYFE4KIU2U_F8TBfz8Vhh6u5sGA-5tIMEEV7xZ= -Q_TjNQOp3SGeuD57mnHKBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48869758 48859561 47959439 46919402 45889409=20
44939450 43759562 42849760 43029857 43689904=20
45739824 48049846=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100444
FFGMPD
OHZ000-100845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100443Z - 100845Z

SUMMARY...A couple of bands of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of locally backbuilding and over the
same area going through the next few hours. Very high rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and potentially some spotty 3 to
4 inch totals may result in some instances of mainly urban flash
flooding. This will include some potential impact to the Cleveland
metropolitan area and adjacent suburbs.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
regional radar data shows a couple bands of convection with high
rainfall rates impacting parts of northern OH. The activity over
the last hour has begun to locally backbuild and train over the
same area which has been helping to yield some 1.5 to 2.5
inch/hour rainfall rates.

The convection is being aided by the arrival of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing through the OH Valley which is
interacting with a moderately unstable airmass characterized by
MLCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg, but also high PWs upwards of
1.8 to 2.2 inches. There are favorable upwind propagation vectors
aligned against the prevailing low-level flow, and this is helping
to facilitate some of the recent cell-training trends.

Given the satellite and radar trends, some short-term rainfall
amounts may reach up to 3 to 4 inches where the most persistent
cell-training occurs. Already some 1 and 3-hour FFG exceedance is
seen across northwest OH. This activity will likely tend to
advance farther off to the east and maintain itself at least for a
few more hours, but this would support it potentially getting into
the Cleveland metropolitan area or at least its western and
southern suburbs. As a result, there will be concerns for at least
a threat of urban flash flooding as this efficient axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms moves through.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5U7FQcLhRSkTnxwXhXbS81KlT8MWxsaFUhsM6kGdT96mk3mvExsXJvdTjm23dlYexqNo= IakhSaBoze54TPm2anU2Pb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41788166 41728101 41418091 41188132 41028207=20
40858315 40868388 41048417 41248411 41468352=20
41648257=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100717
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0377
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast IN...Southern OH...North-Central to the
Northeast KY...Southwest WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100715Z - 101315Z

SUMMARY...A threat for areas of flash flooding will continue into
the morning hours across areas of the OH Valley with potential for
redeveloping and locally backbuilding/training bands of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV satellite imagery shows a
well-defined mid-level vort center advancing to the east across
southeast IN and southwest OH. The latest radar imagery shows a
small-scale band of heavy showers and thunderstorms around the
southern flank of the energy which is exhibiting some backbuilding
and cell-training character. The convection is focusing in
alignment with the nose of a 30 to 40 kt westerly low-level jet
which is yielding some speed convergence and is working in tandem
with about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE.

Over the next several hours, the low-level jet may increase a bit
more and allow greater instability/warm air advection upstream
over southern IL and southern IN to arrive across southern OH and
northern KY to help drive an expansion of locally training bands
of convection. The environment is quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to
2 inches, and this should help yield rainfall rates of 1 to 2+
inches/hour with the stronger convective cores.

Assuming convection can attain a bit more organization, the
potential will be there for locally a few additional inches of
rain through mid-morning. There are favorable Corfidi vectors in
place to support the aforementioned cell-training threat, but the
relative lack of instability is currently a mitigating factor for
anything too heavy for the time being. The 00Z hires multi-model
consensus and subsequent runs of the HRRR and RRFS have generally
been reflecting more uncertainty in the QPF threat through
mid-morning and suggest a potentially more disorganized convective
evolution.

Regardless, the thinking is that enough forcing coupled with
moisture and instability transport can occur this morning for some
additional bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms, with locally
an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain possible. These additional
rains as a result should maintain a threat for areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4lfmdVmhAKMVRYVi85LIzAD9l7Ftt6QfAYtqmrW5rWkh5WU7axn9BClEkkcpK9Sd6u61= DaDGiC7i2DGPPf7Im27-5oU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39648603 39568508 39038358 38828229 38588114=20
37838103 37448199 37418338 37648457 38058574=20
38778653 39428653=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101355
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101851-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
952 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Ohio Valley into portions of the
Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101351Z - 101851Z

SUMMARY...Complex of thunderstorms will continue to push through
Southern West Virginia into southwest Virginia leading to
potential for flash flooding next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Organized area of convection from a mature complex of thunderstorms continues to manuever through the southern third of
WV this morning. Complex will continue to work east-southeastward
with a trailing band of heavy rainfall materializing along an
outflow boundary brought about by the current complex. Recent CAMs
have the next 2-4 hours as the main period for additional heavy
rain prospects before encountering a less favorable environment
with dry air likely to occur via downsloping off the Central
Appalachians. MU CAPE between 750-1500 J/kg has allow for
sufficient buoyancy for the complex to maintain prevelance, so
expectations are for the thunderstorms to sustain character and
produce locally heavy amounts of rainfall.

Flash flood warnings are already in effect for parts of
southwestern WV, and the expectation is for a few more to
potentially be added as the complex encounters steep terrain and
areas that have a history of complex drainage and local flash
flood concerns. Additional rainfall totals between 1-3" are
expected within the path of the complex as it moves through the
area, exceeding the 3-hr FFG indice in place over the area. Flash
flooding will be possible over the next several hours as a result.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4C3X9ldtPPfiUWVA4-qjUqOsTTE5zNsTURnf2Qzl3PIuX21DQ2R9tltrsZkYETER8AEZ= RxZwArl7SpC_AHTphw5zNwA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38738282 38538179 38478113 38298065 37918015=20
37457998 37038062 37088121 37418240 37688272=20
37988303 38438335=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101630
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-102227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1229 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...Missouri Valley into the Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101627Z - 102227Z

SUMMARY...Disturbance ejecting to the northeast out of the Central
Plains will lead to a progressive axis of thunderstorms capable of
heavy rainfall and isolated to widely-scattered flash flood
potential the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest UA analysis and WV satellite imagery note a
quick-moving mid-level shortwave ejecting out of Kansas through
the Missouri Valley with sights downstream into the Midwest and
western Great Lakes area by late this afternoon and evening. Heavy
convection has already spawned in-of the Missouri Valley towards
the mid-Mississippi area of MO/IA, moving quickly to the northeast
within a progressive 30-35kt mean flow directed out of the
southwest. MU CAPE is a widespread 2000-3000 J/kg, already across
northern MO up through the Central and Upper Midwest with a maxima
aligned between eastern IA into southern WI. Large scale forcing
within the primed environment will aid in continued convective
favor with storms strengthening slowly as they maneuver to the
northeast, entering the more favorable thermodynamic area.

Latest hi-res CAMs are in agreement for the storms to remain
progressive in forward propagation speeds, however the hourly rate
potential of 1.5-2"/hr in the stronger cell cores will be capable
of exceeding hourly FFG thresholds for areas covered in the domain
of the MPD. Most favorable areas of impact will likely be in those
urbanized zones of eastern IA into northwest IL and southern WI as
storms migrate to the northeast over the next few hours. Northern
MO and southern IA will be under close monitoring for the end of
the forecast period of the MPD as a second shortwave currently
over NE will shift eastward and begin initiating broad scale
ascent once again over the same areas that were hit hours prior.
Cooler environment left over by the recent convection driven by
remnant cold pools will create a lingering surface boundary
aligned west to east across the IA/MO state lines, allowing for a
focal point for the next round of convection into the area. Mean
flow will be more parallel to the boundary alignment leading to training/repeating cells at the back end of the area encompassed
by the product area.

Forecast rainfall of 1-3" with locally up to 4" are possible over
the next 3-6 hours in the area of interest with the highest probs
for >2" located over that IA/MO border area and 50 miles to the
either side. As of this time, the threat for flash flooding is
more in the possible category with the highlighted area referenced
above having the greatest chance over the time frame.

Kleebauer=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5JY_vqi50-H8AzEc-jM4HnZY_qF0sfwVVureQ7bCsdn8nXqvsDesRXs8AyO_vGEF4ROK= MhBqY7OzIUwkHFxzA_Epnv4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...GRB...ILX...LOT...LSX... MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44609135 44558968 44008905 42858902 41778944=20
41058987 40609033 40199083 39799138 39429214=20
39279320 39379393 39799484 40299557 40849549=20
41309429 41789385 42269349 42719328 43029309=20
43859286 44359228=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102213
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern Iowa, Northern Missouri, and Western
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102211Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely as a developing complex of
storms backbuilds, allowing for repeating storms to impact
flood-vulnerable areas. 3 in/hr rates are probable.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms across far northern Missouri and
into southeastern Iowa are expected to backbuild into a linear
mode back as far west as northeast Kansas. Already there is some
training as hourly rates in the strongest cells across Iowa
approach 3 inches per hour. PWATs are around 2 inches across
northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Moisture transport is
impressive over much of Missouri, eastern Kansas and eastern Iowa,
which supports the continued upscale growth of the convection.
SBCAPE values are over 5,000 J/kg over the northwest corner of
Missouri, and anywhere from 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg where the storms
are developing. Across southern Missouri, values are between 2,500
and 3,000 J/kg, suggesting that abundant instability will continue
to advect northeastward along with the moisture into the
developing complex of storms.

CAMs guidance has some of the usual discrepancies regarding where
the storms are forming and how quickly they move, but many show
the general idea of the storms continuing to backbuild into
northeastern Kansas over the next couple hours, then the whole
complex beginning to build towards the south and east, becoming a
more-or-less west-east oriented line, that slowly shifts south,
while individual storm motions remain parallel to the line towards
the east. This supports the idea that continuing
training/repeating of storms will continue well into the overnight
across this region, as abundant moisture and instability advect
into the storms from the south, supporting their longevity. The
north side of the line should remain rather progressive, and
perhaps oriented more southwest-to-northeast, like the line ahead
of it over eastern Illinois, but the south/west sides of the line
will be much slower to move, and therefore support a continued
flash flooding risk well into the evening. After about 04Z, the
southward movement and expected weakening of the line across
Missouri and southern Illinois should progressively decrease the
flash flooding threat.=20

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5OZl5l0azDugi7venSqX5bSnbqApVpmv212YGzw8hgkkYS5gJh3ljr5jZmR_kdwEFEO_= YoUUe5DmXgnbARcoWPR-rvo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41629270 41629208 41529151 41219053 40888965=20
40408889 39558862 38878940 38909130 38909235=20
38899398 38889536 38999645 39929525 40629425=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110413
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-111012-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0381
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1212 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of Missouri and Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110412Z - 111012Z

Summary...Ongoing convective complex will likely be sustained for
several more hours, with flash flooding remaining possible
especially near training/backbuilding segments.

Discussion...The flash flood risk continues as an expansive linear
convective complex persists along an axis extending from near
Champaign, IL to Quincy to west of Kirksville, MO. Along this
axis, a mix of forward-propagating linear segments and training
convective cells has prompted areas of 1 to 2.5 inch/hr rain rates
at times - highest in north-central Missouri through the Peoria,
IL area. This complex and associated rain rates have prompted a
number of flash flood impacts over the past few hours.

The complex itself is migrating through a region of appreciable
low-level shear (owing to a southwesterly 40-kt 850mb low-level
jet oriented generally perpendicular to ongoing convection) along
with a relative minimum in convective inhibition especially across
Illinois. The pre-convective airmass is quite unstable (near 3000
J/kg MLCAPE) and moist (near 2 inch PW values). Meanwhile, storms
are also oriented favorably to westerly steering flow aloft for
training. The combination of these factors suggest that the
ongoing MCS will be maintained for several more hours, with
continued training/backbuilding and areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rates
through at least 08Z/3a central.

The storms will also gradually propagate east-southeastward toward
regions of slightly higher FFG thresholds (~1.5 inch/hr) compared
to earlier and farther northwest. Flash flood potential will
persist especially along axes of most pronounced training
(northeastern Missouri into west-central Illinois). Additional
flash flood impacts are expected - especially in typical
sensitive/urbanized areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8O4umePYgd4KXEwTDOP33aInkoEBjjAuHBSgnoGnae1P1i4M4JnqFRkbexTkBjGEqwpE= 2IkMfpUnj8kogoo_gw5jtj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41028875 40678700 39688625 38828720 38469030=20
38819307 39449395 40309358 40609249 40909084=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110432
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-110731-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0382
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...central New Hampshire and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110431Z - 110731Z

Summary...A brief flash flood threat will persist across the
discussion area through 06-07Z or so.

Discussion...A small cluster of deep convection continues to
remain focused over a small part of central New Hampshire near
Lincoln and Conway. The cluster consists of a mix of cells and an
upstream linear segment - all oriented favorably for local
mergers/repeating and prolonged rain rates. The airmass
supporting the convection was quite moist, with near 70F dewpoints
supporting PW values of near 1.9 inches, supporting efficient
rainfall rates. Latest MRMS imagery suggests 2-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates over a few localized areas near the White Mountain National
Forest region that could be approaching local FFG.

The overall risk of flash flooding should be brief and focused
from central New Hampshire into adjacent areas of Maine (southwest
of Lewiston). Latest objective analyses suggest that downstream
instability values become negligible especially toward coastal
areas of Maine. While upper forcing and weakly confluent
low-level flow will continue to support locally heavy rain rates
for at least a couple hours (perhaps through 07Z/3a eastern),
convective overturning and stabilizing low-level thermodynamic
profiles may mitigate a larger/longer-temporal flash flood risk.=20
Isolated impacts may still occur in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-3E-cQ2qvV6a3UN_PpxZENmqnCpTT8YUXS_VBp-2IyVFnULDcOMcwRKtKR4VFy17TKDE= sJmer7arzf4Zc7qq7-zWQRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44557166 44497098 44287031 43706998 43287009=20
43177063 43267135 43747194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110905
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-111504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Nebraska into
southern Iowa and far northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110904Z - 111504Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall,
with pronounced local training expected to continue. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion....Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an east-west
oriented band of deep convection extending along I-80 from near
Lexington to near Lincoln. The storms have formed on the nose of
a strong southerly low-level jet, which has increased to around 55
knots over the past couple hours over much of Kansas.=20
Additionally, the storms are focused along a moist axis, with PW
values extending from near 1.25-1.75 along I-80 (highest with
eastward extent. Steep mid-level lapse rates aloft (around 8C/km)
were supporting robust, intense updrafts, while pronounced
training was also noted due to storm motions parallel to the axis
of initiation. This has fostered development of 1+ inch/hr rain
rates in several spots per MRMS.

The ongoing scenario supporting flash flooding should continue for
several hours while translating quickly eastward into southern
Iowa through 12-14Z (7-9am central). Storm motions are relatively
fast (around 40-45 knots), but pronounced training should enable
development of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates to continue at times along
the convective band as long as storms don't grow upscale into
bowing/linear segments too aggressively. FFG thresholds are
around 1.5 inch/hr areawide, but drop some to around 1 inch/hr in southwestern/southern Iowa (locally lower) where copious amounts
of antecedent rainfall have been observed recently and soils are
wet. At least isolated instances of flash flooding are expected
as this convective band continues to evolve through 15Z/10a
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8o-gWjvnAp6mzGYWtO6c6yLXVG3GpLxB0UHzGZyr0sKct4GLoHD7yYsYNoUqiOQFqjOV= G9dYFwkmQlRXDfwl0_mhG3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42119658 42089443 41909298 41419216 40789201=20
40439287 40119614 40169978 41269982 41629906=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111412
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-112008-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0384
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1009 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa, Northern illinois, Southeast
Minnesota, and Southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111408Z - 112008Z

SUMMARY...Increasing risk of flash flooding across the Central
Midwest due to a strong mesoscale convective complex (MCS) moving
into the area. Highest risk of flash flooding across eastern Iowa
and along the Mississippi River Valley between Iowa and Illinois.

DISCUSSION...A potent MCS continues to migrate east-northeast
across Iowa this morning within a bound of prolific buoyancy
referenced by widespread dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s with
some areas even poking into the low 70s as of the latest 13z
surface analysis. Environmental conditions remain favorable for
general MCS maintenance as the complex makes headway to the east.
Sufficient boundary layer moisture flux driven by persistent
southerly winds across the Midwest will continue to advect warm,
moist air poleward through the morning and afternoon which will
only enhance the convective premise through the daytime hours.

Upstream driver of the pattern is a potent mid-level vorticity
maxima that will shift east across the NE/SD border leading to a
strong diffluent pattern situated over the region. A second
mid-level vorticity maxima will sneak in behind the current
complex with a potential for re-development of convection across
IA by the time we reach the early-afternoon time frame. This has
been a feature within the recent HRRR/RRFS iterations this morning
while both models have been doing relatively well with handling
the current convective evolution.

Considering the deep, moist convective environment in place thanks
to sufficient boundary layer moisture profiles and MLCAPE indices
between 1000-2000 J/kg the course of the next several hours, rate
potential in direct impact from the complex will likely reach
1-2"/hr with some embedded cores capable of intra-hour rates
closer to 3"/hr at peak intensity. FFG's across eastern IA into
neighboring northwest IL are much lower compared to normal after
recent convective episodes, so the potential to reach these
thresholds are much more prevalent likely leading to scattered
instances of flash flooding. Expectation is for 1-3" with locally
as high as 4" are plausible in the current convective evolution,
plentiful to cause flash flood concerns, especially over those
larger urban footprints. The highest confidence for flash flooding
will likely lie over far eastern IA into northwest IL where the
MCS will likely maintain a potent intensity as it moves into the
region.

Kleebauer=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nRMFFbGUD5SgwzvZi9Z9wIwnyOscawL7voEDmR7z3L_0RK5DoSCJlxSCqLVpjTnEY5k= vyfephZ-D_iIJ2TzBiPnhgA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43718989 43648909 43538857 43418802 42858778=20
42198760 41648752 41138853 40728956 40369038=20
40219129 40209189 40219262 40609330 41539337=20
42589255 43289211 43599154 43699090=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111905
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-120103-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0385
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of Northern MO & Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111903Z - 120103Z

Summmary...Thunderstorms near and ahead of a cold front and a
retreating warm front/outflow boundary are expected to move
through partially saturated soils. With hourly rain amounts up to
2.5", scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...A front is draped across portions of the Midwest
ahead of an upper level low located across southeast SD. Some
clearing noted in Veggie Band imagery should allow an outflow boundary/effective warm front to lift somewhat north across
portions of northern MO and northern IL with time. Precipitable
water values are ~1.9" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of
50-60 kts exists across the region. The area is in an instability
gradient downwind of an area of 3000-4000 J/kg ML CAPE.

The guidance is generally too slow with leading convection across
northeast IL presently, which is likely contaminating its
solutions across IA/WI (heavy rain too far to the north), so
conceptual models along with the area of recent soil saturation
was used moreso than the 12z HREF/REFS guidance QPF output.=20
Mesocyclones are likely to form in this environment, which could
lead to hourly rain amounts up to 2.5". Over partially saturated
soils, this may lead to scattered areas of flash flooding. Due to
a lack of confidence in the mesoscale guidance at the present
time, used the possible over the likely category due to the
forecast uncertainty.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8wZUfS0n8KJXfoP4qG24Zyi0Eagr4YRZKqCb65TcJG8WXN6JCbkDwn7W0J1yyWoCgzuB= n4cHmUScd4gXSACzruzPpG4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42548958 42188776 41848686 41208662 40468708=20
39958830 39738975 39539277 39919395 40689355=20
41599267 42319136=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112003
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-120101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0386
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians/Northern Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112001Z - 120101Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are occasionally exhibiting
heavy rainfall character due to cell mergers. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to widely scattered
occurrences of flash flooding.

Discussion...Veggie Band imagery shows what appears to be a low-
to mid-level vorticity maximum/possible MCV moving across Lake
Erie. This feature has led to shower and thunderstorm development
across its eastern and southern flanks over the past few hours.=20
While there was a brief period of cell training a couple hours ago
near the southwestern NY coast, lately heavy rain cores have been
caused by cell collisions, with hourly amounts up to 1-2" an hour
estimated by radar. Precipitable water values are ~1.8" per GPS
data. ML CAPE is 1000-2500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is towards
25 kts.

For the next couple hours, there could be a further increase in
cell coverage which could lead to further cell collisions and a
greater incidence of heavy rainfall. Given the parameters above,
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible. Flash flood guidance
values are modest to low across portions of NY, western PA, and
WV. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!44_4RXmN49esyBPla5rqGEUJhPmPR1SUGrBhDICkrv8M0GfvUtkolB81bNlIY3zIBEIX= 11CPHZQLPtWuYUZfAho8KtQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43357648 42637507 40827783 38507965 38128112=20
39498220 41477971 43097821=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120010
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120507-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0387
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of IL & IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120007Z - 120507Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are showing some
training character with embedded mesocyclones at times. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash flooding in urban areas
and where soils have partial saturation.

Discussion...Two bands of convection -- one across northernmost IL
and the other moving into central IL -- have shown training
character over the past several hours. This is occurring downwind
of an intersection of a mesoscale front with the synoptic scale
cold front for the southern band. In the case of the northern
training band, it is near a surface convergence zone ahead of an
apparent mesoscale occluded cyclone passing from northern IL into
far southern WI. Precipitable water values of 1.5-2" inhabit the
area per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of is 40-60 kts. A pool
of 3000-4000 J/kg of ML CAPE exists to the south of east of these
bands.

The expectation is for the convective pattern to narrow and pick
up the pace with time once it plows through the instablity pools
that lie ahead and while the 850 hPa inflow veers with time. This
should eventually lead to a decrease in the extent and intensity
of the heavy rainfall as it clears central IN by 05z per the 18z
HREF and 12z REFS guidance. The MPD bounds used the 12z REFS
probabilities of 2"+, recent radar reflectivity, and where flash
flood guidance has been lowered by recent rainfall or urban areas.
Until 05z, hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" remain possible, both
within training bands or near/ahead of any embedded mesocyclones.=20
This would be a problem over partially saturated soils and across
any impacted urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cfWgtAbLPzthER-0nhaZEDvNjEJ8jerGJTtBm8iDTQ5kiLBVt8NE_Khrj3DTsDnZnJm= qXqc2KPOjPTEcmMf7EVdAuc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42538738 41688615 40658545 39308640 38978951=20
39589106 40618929 41418941 42318878=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120056
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of Northeast PA & the NJ/NY border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120053Z - 120333Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave of low pressure has been leading to
some heavy rainfall as of late in northeast PA. Over the next few
hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" appear possible where cells merge
or train.

Discussion...An incoming convective line has led to a mesoscale
wave near Scranton PA, which has led to some cell training.=20
Additional convection lies ahead of this wave near the northern
PA/NJ border over the top of an instability pool with 2000-3000
J/kg of ML CAPE. Effective bulk shear is near 30 kts. The
instability gradient near the NJ/NY border aligns with a low-level
convergence zone which extends from the NY/NJ border
east-southeast across western Long Island, partially caused by
convective outflow from thunderstorms which passed through Long
Island a couple of hours ago.

The mesoscale guidance generally does not advertise thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall to escape northeast PA. However, none of the
ongoing convection appears to be dying quite yet, so there remains
a threat for heavy/excessive rainfall in this region for some
unspecified time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 3" remain possible
until the thunderstorms with heavy rainfall wane tonight. Since
it is unclear how long the organized convection will hold on, used
a three hour time horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9oGlzW5NtWGyQ_3HCTLwXHIMJAtZgHoNx9Y0N7w5a1OXiXl-N2TDlqdAb4TylwW0n7Ek= 18NTvRie9Fne5DnQk47oE-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498=20
41307577=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120059
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of Northeast PA & the NJ/NY border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120053Z - 120333Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave of low pressure has been leading to
some heavy rainfall as of late in northeast PA. Over the next few
hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" appear possible where cells merge
or train.

Discussion...An incoming convective line has led to a mesoscale
wave near Scranton PA, which has led to some cell training.=20
Additional convection lies ahead of this wave near the northern
PA/NJ border over the top of an instability pool with 2000-3000
J/kg of ML CAPE. Effective bulk shear is near 30 kts. The
instability gradient near the NJ/NY border aligns with a low-level
convergence zone which extends from the NY/NJ border
east-southeast across western Long Island, partially caused by
convective outflow from thunderstorms which passed through Long
Island a couple of hours ago.

The mesoscale guidance generally does not advertise thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall to escape northeast PA. However, none of the
ongoing convection appears to be dying quite yet, so there remains
a threat for heavy/excessive rainfall in this region for some
unspecified time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 3" remain possible
until the thunderstorms with heavy rainfall wane tonight. Since
it is unclear how long the organized convection will hold on, used
a nearly three hour time horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_tsU469dGshsxBk1JXfAQu1pEojZvTrdosi3h1y7It8c61Gj6TFAAJqZ_l-rnizJtgdJ= 4ZCvalWcA7vO5s-qVkOLsT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498=20
41307577=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-120619-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120419Z - 120619Z

Summary...Brief urban flash flood potential exists.

Discussion...A well organized, linear convective complex continues
to make steady eastward progress over southern Lower Michigan
currently. The complex has been responsible for widespread areas
of 1 inch/hr rain rates especially along I-94 from Jackson west to
Battle Creek and vicinity over the past couple. These rates were
roughly 40-80% of local FFG across those areas.

With time, this complex will traverse more urbanized areas of
southeastern Michigan where local FFGs are slightly lower (around
1 inch/hr). Flash flooding may become more likely on an isolated
basis as these cells approach. The downstream airmass contains
sufficient moisture/shear and instability for continued
maintenance of the complex as it moves through the Detroit region
and into far southeastern Ontario through 06Z.

Given the aforementioned scenario supporting heavy rainfall, flash
flooding is possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Sk3xvtAGn0EZjx58yNAlxIfEcbkyaVUqCjC9zI4unOdqIM-CT4WW036G1J_mrn4VHRf= k7clo9xbzdp_HOfn1dvmDOg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42998280 42368239 41668327 41808448 42648435=20
42928396=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120533
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120531Z - 121131Z

Summary...Flash flood potential exist as a slow-moving front
sparks scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region
through at least 10Z/5a central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic/surface observations depict a
focused, backbuilding axis of convection very near Talequah, OK
currently. The convection was embedded within weak flow aloft
(averaging around 20 knots) while anchored/backbuilding along a
front extending from near Lawton to near Springfield that was
moving slowly southeastward. Recent MRMS data suggests rain rates
exceeding 3 inches/hr in spots in/near Talequah, which isn't
surprising given the abundantly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
moist (1.75 inch PW) environment supporting the convection. The
rates were exceeding local FFG and prompting moderate FLASH
responses, suggesting that impacts from excessive runoff may be
occuring in a few spots beneath the convective band.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing convective trends should
expand in coverage over the next few hours. Evidence of this is
already unfolding, with newer individual cells now noted near
Okmulgee. These cells should feed into the western edge of the
training axis and continue to promote areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates at times on at least an isolated basis. Storms should
gradually spread/develop south-southeastward across the discussion
area, traversing I-40 and the Arkansas River Valley in the next
2-4 hours (07-09Z). Cells may persist southward from there, and
although FFGs increasing slightly with progression toward the
Ouachitas, local terrain sensitivities shoudl maintain a continued
flash flood risk into those areas overnight assuming storm mode
(i.e., backbuilding) remains favorable for flash flooding.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8kqZNUT-FmEhHx0m624Mhb90DYL3w6uqrqhfQ6QuxoPMrGEG197xCVmcrhg8cc7l-pIz= Xulu0DBXPW2XuSINy1P_hLY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36269400 35899308 34709277 33629366 33939548=20
34039654 35539623 36079533=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120535
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120531Z - 121131Z

Summary...Flash flood potential exists as a slow-moving front
sparks scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region
through at least 10Z/5a central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic/surface observations depict a
focused, backbuilding axis of convection very near Talequah, OK
currently. The convection was embedded within weak flow aloft
(averaging around 20 knots) while anchored/backbuilding along a
front extending from near Lawton to near Springfield that was
moving slowly southeastward. Recent MRMS data suggests rain rates
exceeding 3 inches/hr in spots in/near Talequah, which isn't
surprising given the abundantly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
moist (1.75 inch PW) environment supporting the convection. The
rates were exceeding local FFG and prompting moderate FLASH
responses, suggesting that impacts from excessive runoff may be
occurring in a few spots beneath the convective band.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing convective trends should
expand in coverage over the next few hours. Evidence of this is
already unfolding, with newer individual cells now noted near
Okmulgee. These cells should feed into the western edge of the
training axis and continue to promote areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates at times on at least an isolated basis. Storms should
gradually spread/develop south-southeastward across the discussion
area, traversing I-40 and the Arkansas River Valley in the next
2-4 hours (07-09Z). Cells may persist southward from there, and
although FFGs increasing slightly with progression toward the
Ouachitas, local terrain sensitivities should maintain a continued
flash flood risk into those areas overnight assuming storm mode
(i.e., backbuilding) remains favorable for flash flooding.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9um4v53bDIKacFRGnDDZV-xxLZPgm9ogznAOwjibvrfRiWBshQeC_mAEvNOpqa1TUDMW= 7z07R3aSnZRblu89sZcQj-A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36269400 35899308 34709277 33629366 33939548=20
34039654 35539623 36079533=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121109
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Southeast Oklahoma...Northern
Texas....Far Southwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121115Z - 121700Z

SUMMARY...Decaying MCS

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and Regional RADAR depict mature MCS
across Southeastern OK extending into southwest AR with increasing
bowing/cold pool structure evident along the southern edge of the
complex. WV suite shows the cluster is at the far trailing edge
of the northern stream longwave trough with a convectively
enhanced jet streak shifting out of the Ozark Plateau into the
Mid-MS Valley providing solid upper-level divergence/outflow to
maintain the complex in approaching diurnal minima of instability.


With the exiting upper-level support, low level rear(westerly)
inflow is isentropically ascending from north to south allowing
for redevelopment while maintaining placement of back-building
environment. This is allowing for some stationary tendrils of
ascent with downshear repeating elements, ingesting solidly
unstable, moist air with MUCAPE still over 2000 J/kg and solid
moisture flux convergence to maximize PWat loading over 2". As
such, rates have been remaining in that 1.5-2"/hr rates with a few
hours likely to occur as the complex becomes cold pool dominant.

RAP analysis denotes, pool of instability remains along and north
of the Red River with a minimum over north Texas and downstream
into northern LA. With 20-25kts of southwesterly becoming more
westerly across S OK and broadening 500-1000 thickness fields
across S AR/NE TX/N LA; propagation should be initially south the west-southwest bringing the upwind edge into south-central
TX/central North Texas while downstream convection in AR slowly
weakens in place near the effective cyclonic rotor of the MCS.=20
This will allow for some remaining 2-4" totals in SW AR until pool
of instability is exhausted. Forward propagation to the
west-southwest should limit localized totals, but given the direct
inflow and ample deep moisture intense instantaneous rates and
localized 2-3" totals in 60-90 minutes remains possible with an
isolated 4" across the Red River Basin through the remainder of
the morning as the complex weakens due to decreasing inflow
strength and reducing instability overall. This generally
follows the 06z NAM-Nest and recent RRFS evolution.

Hydrologically, these instantaneous rates and 2-4" totals are at
the limits of the naturally higher FFG values in the region which
remain around 2-2.5"/hr and 3-4"/3hrs, as such, localized flash
flooding remains possible but likely going to be limited in
coverage given the eventual forward speeds with best opportunity
along the anticyclonic (SE OK to south-central OK) and cyclonic
rotor/bookend circulation (SW AR).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-shJk3BD1TtymeycXIcO4dmKYPeSpheFSedcmWFS7uTC00WSDb8tc7XvKIljB7dK_r7l= oOKSU7lctujEEjf4GwKB0mk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35649534 35629470 35379443 34899414 34519344=20
33969338 33589365 33189451 32999530 32939621=20
33039732 33289805 33859828 34369788 35269645=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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