ACUS11 KWNS 111201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111200
OHZ000-INZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas affected...parts of east central Indiana into southwestern
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 111200Z - 111400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An initially linear band of strong storms may maintain
strength and undergo some further organization while advancing
southeastward through 9-11 AM EDT. This could pose some potential
for strong to locally damaging surface gusts, but this may be
short-lived and its not clear that it will require a severe weather
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development, now in a linear band
northeast of the Muncie through Lafayette vicinities, still appears
rooted above a relatively stable boundary layer, along a weak
low-level frontal zone. However, latest objective analysis suggests
that low-level moistening along this boundary, coupled with perhaps
subtle steepening of lapse rates aloft, have contributed to ongoing destabilization in a corridor ahead of activity through southwestern
Ohio. Updraft inflow emanating from this environment might provide
continuing support for strong thunderstorm development into the
13-15Z time frame, with some further organization possible aided by
modest vertical shear. However, with lower- to mid-tropospheric
mean westerly wind fields generally on the order of 20-25 kt, the
extent of the potential for damaging wind gusts to increase remains
unclear due to the lingering presence of weak low-level lapse rates.

..Kerr/Smith.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Ng9jufX8M-7-yNRlLqWwZSwOxw_RHdwILgMtL5cjzE5ps6cRKN4AanGXByZXUZk-cdcaOynX4bfi8-WOgS_rIbtK7Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON 40338427 40108361 39658279 38918287 38938396 39308468
40198575 40368581 40208487 40338427

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)