ACUS11 KWNS 110451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110450
SDZ000-NDZ000-110545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwest ND into west-central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562...

Valid 110450Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562
continues.

SUMMARY...A pair of widely spaced supercells will continue to pose a
threat for very large hail and occasional severe gusts in the near
term.

DISCUSSION...A reservoir of strong instability amid enhanced
west-northwesterly mid-level flow and related 45-55 kt of deep-layer
shear will continue to support a pair of widely spaced intense
supercells across southwest ND into west-central SD. Current
expectations are for these supecells to pose mainly a large to very
large hail threat in the near term (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in
diameter) given the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates and
strong cloud-layer shear noted on the 00Z observed sounding from
UNR. These cells should continue tracking southeastward, with
occasional severe downdraft gusts also possible given the ample
MUCAPE present. The potential for upscale growth into a bowing
cluster with this ongoing activity remains highly uncertain, as
stronger low-level flow and warm/moist advection related to a
gradually strengthening low-level jet will tend to focus to the
south/east of this region (NE into IA).

..Gleason.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_ZitrhmzUgSmwEBijs8Q9loGI0_iilzvLA9M3QDMjWOl6xPwXerUf7Nkr1DcDT8UytzujTTjuTO9KHUtwXiWsmt5oLk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 46580259 46610171 45270092 43350073 43340145 44460188
45920240 46580259

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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