ACUS11 KWNS 110221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110220
AZZ000-110345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern AZ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

Valid 110220Z - 110345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail/wind continues this
evening across parts of southern Arizona.

DISCUSSION...Convection has tended to focus/spread slowly westward
across southern AZ this evening, with modest (15-20 kt) easterly
mid-level flow present on recent VWPs from KEMX. A measured severe
gust to 66 mph was observed to the east of KTUS with a small cell,
and any ongoing convection should also be capable of producing
isolated severe gusts given the very well mixed boundary layer
observed on the 00Z PHX sounding. In fact, modifying this sounding
for the latest surface observations at KPHX (105/60F) suggests that
minimal MLCIN is present at the moment. Still, given a dearth of
upstream convection over the Mogollon Rim, appreciable severe wind
risk in the near term will probably tend to remain fairly isolated
and confined to parts of southern AZ with ongoing convection.
Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores.

..Gleason.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5i6i6wkEdY2YfmJPmvLCdp_aFzAo0CBgDkOGX__5YbeYTysglrhVxL8T5JlvciotM6yIcnqZEtJ-MN7_63A44qVMv5w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31951348 32581348 32761224 33051088 32730972 32470953
32041015 31521182 31951348

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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