ACUS11 KWNS 110208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110207
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa into northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 110207Z - 110400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convection developing in eastern Iowa will likely
intensify in the coming hours and could pose some severe threat for
portions of eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. Confidence in exact
evolution is limited, but watch issuance may need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional reflectivity and GOES IR imagery shows
steady deepening of nascent convection across eastern IA along a
diffuse warm frontal zone. A recent 00 UTC DVN RAOB sampled weak
mixed-layer inhibition that is evidently being overcome by ascent
within the frontal zone as a nocturnal jet slowly strengthens. This
sounding also sampled extreme buoyancy and adequate deep-layer wind
shear for organized convection. Consequently, it seems likely that
further intensification will occur over the next 1-2 hours.

Moderate veering through the lowest 3 km is also noted in the
observed hodograph, which should support the potential for a
supercell or two capable of producing large hail and perhaps brief
tornadoes. The primary uncertainty regarding this potential is the
possibility of destructive storm interactions and clustering given
forecast storm motions largely along the zone of initiation. This
potential is hinted by recent solutions of the HRRR and RRFS, which
show initially semi-discrete cells growing upscale into northern IL
later this evening. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
and watch issuance may be needed if robust supercells become more
imminent.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!89SatIIJZXpBQhT0y3AQdsg9D7aJHNLRvUsPpKtg0NqfxjO66hhh3GXtC8SA4kCzhCWMQ6f3Vb1MCPOWE81DEdv1CO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41879229 41999275 42309288 42609273 42789230 42508890
42228873 41928879 41718893 41568910 41408941 41879229

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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