ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102154
AZZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 102154Z - 110030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the severe wind threat may occur
this afternoon and evening, with Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
possible.

DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level anticyclone remains anchored over the
Four Corners this afternoon, with modest (around 10-20 kt) easterly
mid-level flow persisting across parts of NM/AZ per recent VWPs from
KEMX. Modifying the 18Z observed sounding from PHX for current
surface conditions shows a very well-mixed boundary layer through
low/mid levels, with around 1600 J/kg of MLCAPE and ample DCAPE as
well. This agrees with latest mesoanalysis estimates, which suggest
around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across the lower
elevations of southeast/central AZ. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms have recently developed over the Mogollon Rim in
east-central AZ and the higher terrain in southeast AZ. Recent
trends in short-term model guidance remain unclear regarding
potential for this activity to increase in coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon, and whether one or more bowing clusters
eventually develops westward into the lower deserts over the next
few hours. Regardless of this continued uncertainty, the
thermodynamic environment appears favorable for severe gusts if
convection can grow upscale. Watch issuance is possible, and will
largely depend on convective trends.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-vQRWhXMwaNMo02zJQHXPNlUFwDAxaTFzHbyuTWnYnn0qB5dVogSQqxFVWC8Q6UEyEQffEySZJuRGUBYjAEM84Wp-hM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31701247 32351199 33181183 33931202 34351168 34181086
33941010 32970944 31240938 31221104 31701247

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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