ACUS11 KWNS 102020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102019
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...New York City vicinity through New Jersey into
Delaware

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556...

Valid 102019Z - 102215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 556
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may increase into early
evening as storms approach the coast.

DISCUSSION...So far this afternoon, thunderstorms in southeast NY
and eastern PA have remained disorganized within a broader band of
lower reflectivity, presumably due to poor lapse rate profiles.
Ahead of the ongoing storms, temperatures have warmed into the mid
80s to lower 90s with latest objective analysis indicating a
corridor of steeper low-level lapse rates, which may support some
storm organization into early evening, given the presence of 35-40
kt of westerly deep-layer shear.

..Mead.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8FS1Bab5uK_2Zx-vdEx0-_31Im0my0FzTJRbxVHR2ZDpbxpbWRJRUJMZuPbEQBJw6Ihdmx6xa-D7iFXPn_4y6GdjKbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 40307519 41067469 41167442 41047404 40327395 39317446
39077478 38697517 38867557 39547567 40307519

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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