ACUS11 KWNS 101900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101900
VAZ000-WVZ000-102100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...southeast West Virginia into western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 101900Z - 102100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for at least isolated damaging wind gusts
may increase over the next one to two hours. Convective trends are
being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms over central WV has recently
shown a weakened trend, per volumetric radar data, with the
associated cold pool moving south-southeast at 40-45 kt. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are developing ahead of the gust front,
and it's possible that activity could reinforce the cold pool,
leading to the re-intensification of the thunderstorm line. That
process may be aided by stronger heating across the downstream air
mass where objective analysis indicates comparatively steeper
low-level lapse rates with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.

Given the above considerations, the threat for at least isolated
damaging wind gusts may increase over the next 1-2 hours. However,
it's unclear whether sufficient storm organization will occur to
warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7yfZdyk5hD2jGBV2uwIIGXqeEF5WCznHf1mUvPsCGTHfLs--KLB68tm_1C1Zuex_3sACAacgooApkwKp1kTJI1BEgaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...

LAT...LON 37418112 37838072 38018052 38018001 38037949 37507891
37017900 36757928 36647999 36718073 36798124 37128135
37418112

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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