ACUS11 KWNS 101739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101738
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-101945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...south-central New York into portions of central and
eastern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...553...

Valid 101738Z - 101945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552, 553
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for mainly damaging winds is expected to
increase from central into eastern Pennsylvania and locations
farther east. An additional downstream watch will likely be
required.

DISCUSSION...A transition from a line into more cellular convection
has occurred over the past 1-2 hours from the vicinity of an MCV
over north-central PA into central PA. Storm mode and poor low-level
lapse rates have limited damaging wind potential thus far with the
cellular convection. With time, coalescing storm-scale cold pools,
40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear, and continued heating/
destabilization of the inflow air mass should support increasing
damaging wind potential from central into eastern PA, and eventually
NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. As such, a downstream severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be required.

..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9Gc6ZoS5RDIqO8hAuyYbSg98yixKk5qbp5p-ANyZi_HTAqFXNjjxub5CRZhtnGT3gyyFB1_RMIMLOrq9EOIwGWwmchM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40227896 40827812 41417794 41947767 42317747 42437681
42257593 41537363 40957343 39857422 39777597 39747716
39757827 39767896 39837912 40227896

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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