ACUS11 KWNS 101630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101630
MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern OH...northern/central
WV...and far western MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 101630Z - 101830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of scattered damaging wind gusts will increase
while spreading south-southeastward this afternoon. A watch is
likely for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Several organized storm clusters are tracking
south-southeastward across southeastern OH toward WV. These storms
have produced a couple strong wind gusts (50-60 mph). South of this
activity, mostly clear skies are promoting ample diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints),
which combined with steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z
ILN sounding), is contributing to moderate surface-based buoyancy.
Given the well-established storm clusters/cold pools moving into
this environment, and around 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per VWP data)
oriented oblique to the leading gust fronts, the risk of scattered
damaging wind gusts will continue spreading south-southeastward this
afternoon. Instances of severe hail could also occur with the
stronger embedded cells. A watch issuance is likely for parts of the
area.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5JiTL-pd_a54YNNBEswFY4zmREIjV9i1DM1dGeGRl2NzPBWFu4GaxA8_b3pj8JiQ_ZLixh_RVc6jxwBkvwhUSUFN2Fw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 39668312 39738274 39588146 39737979 39727926 39437897
38987907 38567964 38318064 38358241 38618309 39048339
39418332 39668312

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)