ACUS11 KWNS 291952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291952
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern Montana...northeastern Wyoming...western
Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291952Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and spread
eastward through the afternoon/evening. One more more clusters of
damaging wind will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage across
the high terrain in eastern MT/WY. A cluster of thunderstorms also
continues eastward across eastern North Dakota, producing gusts up
to 57 mph. Downstream across the western Dakotas, temperatures have
warmed into the upper 90s to 100s F with dew points in the upper 50s
to 60s F amid strong MLCIN and sunny skies through most of the day.
18z soundings from BIS and UNR show moderate instability amid dry
sub-cloud layers near the surface. Also sampled are steep low to
mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. SPC Mesoanalysis would
suggest that MLCIN is eroding. This environment will support
potential for strong to severe gusts. Guidance suggests that one or
more organized clusters may develop and spread eastward through the
afternoon. A watch may be needed to cover this potential this
afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8mYjJrkUu5U6h1S6qx7ceJB_cq2p1a0yG6TbCtmu5ijGDD0u89Om_WW-3wyFiEqoSJS6wWfTosg31g0ZfuI0jfrftJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 44520581 46090516 47490425 48660358 48880306 48980206
48980137 48730084 48520047 47770033 47180045 46250063
45100096 43620202 43600403 43680490 44520581

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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