ACUS11 KWNS 292040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292040
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-292245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Areas affected...Southern Georgia into northern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532...

Valid 292040Z - 292245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind, and perhaps brief
instances of large hail, continues for portions of northern Georgia
and southern Florida.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour depict mostly
short-lived pulse convection and outflow-dominant clusters across
southern GA. Although much of this activity has struggled to
maintain intensity (mainly owing to the limited kinematic
environment as sampled by regional VWPs), several instances of wind
damage have been noted with the more robust convective cores and
attendant downdrafts. Regionally, thermodynamic conditions remain
supportive of intense updrafts (as evident by periodic bursts of
colder cloud tops in GOES IR imagery and occasional MESH cores) with
MLCAPE remaining near 2500-3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
around 8 C/km away from the deeper convective cold pools. A
combination of continued ascent along a weak front and along
colliding outflow boundaries should continue to promote scattered,
but relatively transient, convection capable of damaging wind swaths
and perhaps brief instances of large hail (most likely near 1 inch).

Further west into southern Alabama, thunderstorms are beginning to
develop along the diffuse cold front and within a similar
thermodynamic and kinematic environment. As with southern GA, storms
developing across southern AL will most likely exhibit pulse-like
behavior with some degree of clustering possible. Damaging downburst
winds will be the primary hazard, though isolated instances of large
hail will be possible with the more intense updraft pulses. Weaker
frontal forcing should promote more isolated thunderstorm coverage.

..Moore.. 07/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KFW5InmNBNgb090iH99dpFnmo__B4PTpQwWR8klZNpZLqqN40fxw-ZqBwZ15rFB_sgVu5IAVIhksAaelTvonm_02vQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30128117 29888235 30248425 31378709 31998744 32448747
32728722 32798695 32608640 32358552 32058297 32048125
31998093 31778092 31488109 31208124 30918134 30628136
30128117

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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